Will Moscow Share Keys To Russian Black Sea Fleet Arsenals with Kyiv?

"Mr. Rybak, until recently our General Staff favored an international agreement with the Russian Federation which would enable Ukraine to monitor, if necessary, the weapons kept on its territory at RBSF arsenals. But now this issue is no longer being raised, and I have heard from rather high uniformed officials that the initiatives of our military were met without enthusiasm in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, for the discussion of such questions may be not so timely and appropriate - first, because we awaited ratification of the general political treaty between Ukraine and Russia and then the basic Black Sea package. So is Kyiv now really capable of monitoring Russian conventional arsenals in the Crimea, and what is the Ministry's position on this?"

"If I understood it properly, the question is about armored combat vehicles and aircraft as part of RBSF units on the territory of Ukraine subject to reduction under the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (TCAFE). In particular, the RBSF marines may be equipped with 132 armored combat vehicles and 24 artillery systems of over 100 millimeters, while the air arm may have 22 land-based warplanes. Each year TCAFE member-states exchange information on the aggregate number of their conventional arms and the places of their location and basing. Ukraine also makes use of this information exchange, including that about Russian armaments in the Crimea. In addition, TCAFE also provides for inspections to verify data supplied by the signatories. So the number and condition of RBSF armaments may be checked during the inspections, including the so-called "area inspections by request." In addition, a dialogue continues under the auspices of the Subcommission on the RBSF about specifying the procedure for inspecting the locations of RBSF military facilities in both bi- and multilateral aspects."

"But, as far as I know, because of certain subtleties of this treaty signed when the Warsaw Pact still existed, it is quite a problem for Ukraine to organize inspection of the Russian military facilities. Only Western inspectors make use of this right..."

"Since the inspecting group of a state is to be accompanied by Ukrainian representatives, the latter also have direct access to RBSF arms during inspections. By the way, a German inspection group recently inspected the 264th detached regiment of the RBSF marines. That group was accompanied by representatives of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. As of today, the results of that inspection are being evaluated at the Ministry of Defense Verification Department.

So TCAFE verification mechanisms allow Ukraine and other signatories to the treaty to monitor the number and condition of RBSF weapons on the one hand and to oblige Russia to supply reliable information and receive inspectors to verify it on the other. Having analyzed this information, I can assure you that RBSF combat facilities are much smaller than Russia could have under the Black Sea accords."

"But the participants of the German inspection you have mentioned seem to have found a larger number of armored vehicles in the Russian marine units than they had expected, even although the extra vehicles bore red crosses. Can this be regarded as violation of the arms control agreements?"

"RBSF combat armored vehicles are part of the naval forces with respect to which Russia inherited some of the former Soviet Union's still applicable legal commitments under TCAFE about a certain upper limit on them. The procedures the treaty provides for do not restrict the number of medical armored vehicles.

"Besides, there are additional limitations imposed by bilateral Ukrainian-Russian Black Sea Fleet agreements. Under these, the Russian side committed itself not to exceed a certain number of conventional armaments in the Black Sea Fleet, personnel strength, and number of warships and auxiliary vessels above the limits stipulated by the agreement on the principles of Black Sea Fleet division. This means the territory of Ukraine cannot have more RBSF armaments than stipulated by Black Sea Fleet accords, no matter whether they bear red crosses."