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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

ELECTION

27 April, 1999 - 00:00

Kyiv on Ukraine's Political Map

Capital electorate proves most constructive
Events that prompted my to write this took the following course. My booklet,
Parties in the Eyes of a Demographer: 1998 and 1999 Elections,
was published in late January. Several days later I received a call from
Mr. Yu, a leading engineer at the Antonov Aircraft Plant. Could I please
let him have a copy? He visited me a couple of days later, I gave him a
copy, and he said he was a CPU exponent and hoped that Petro Symonenko
would be our next President. I was equally frank and told him that if he
thought the Communist leader would make a good President I was Mao's nephew.
Mr. Yu thought this over and agreed, uttering a sacramental phrase, "So
what? Just so long as he doesn't get in our way we'll put everything in
order ourselves." I asked if he and his like wanted another puppet. The
man just shrugged. There we stood looking into each other's eyes, acutely
aware that we would never be friends.

Question number one: How many like him and unlike him do we have in
Kyiv? Question number two: What does the Ukrainian capital look like against
the backdrop of the ideological counter-versions characteristic of this
country? Both questions are made especially relevant by the coming presidential
campaign and mayoral elections (the latter has to take place, sooner or
later).

Casting their votes for 30 parties and blocs in March 1998, every region
testified to its political preferences. A tangible part of the political
forces on the ballots left the electorate cold. Thus, an adequate analysis
had to be based on the turnouts received by 12 parties/blocs, each winning
at least 2% of the votes, ranging from CPU (24.7%) to the National Front
(2.7%). Multivariable mathematical modeling makes it possible to construct
an integral profile of each such region, which is considerably more expressive
than merely listing parties and turnouts. Apart from the votes received,
another significant component of this profile lies in demographic characteristics,
including the number of pensioners and birth rate, for each such index
mirrors a number of economic and social the factors. The stability (inertia)
of the demographic process adds to the overall portrayal, turning it into
a mirror-like reflection of not only what took place in March 1998, but
also what might happen in October 1999. Parties can change but people stay
the same and these people will vote again.

THREE POLITICAL DIMENSIONS

The analysis I propose allows us to ascertain the maximum number of
integral electoral-demographic dimensions characterizing every region in
sufficient detail. Mathematicians call these dimensions factors. Estimates
point to three such factors.

(1) Political Polarization

This reflects an ideological confrontation along the west-east geographical
axis. Its principal components are the number of votes cast for Rukh and
the Agrarian Party (Right vector), and Communists along with Labor Ukraine
(Left vector). Birth rates (higher in the west and lower in the east and
south) are the demographic marker of this factor.

(2) Political Conservatism

This integrates the number of people of the older generation (pensioners)
and that of the votes cast for the Socialist-Peasant bloc (the two indices
are reciprocally drawn), as well as the Reforms & Order turnout (the
latter being repelled by the former).

(3) Political Skepticism

Here the analyst relies primarily on the number of votes cast for the
Greens. The party was formed shortly before the parliamentary elections
and conducted its propaganda campaign counterpoising "specific deeds" to
"fruitless political verbiage." This caused quite a response among the
electorate: 1.5 million votes, showing skepticism toward the "politicking"
of the other parties. However, the second component of this factor proved
unexpected, being actively "repelled" by the former: the number of votes
received by the National Front. Obviously emphasizing national problems
received a skeptical response from part of the voters. Here there was no
demographic marker, for this factor was made up of only 14% of Ukraine's
total electorate (with political conservatism collecting 21% and political
confrontation 23% of the votes). Put together, the three factors reflect
67% of the social, political, and demographic distinctions in the voter
attitudes considered regionally. The remaining 33% was divided between
Hromada, PSPU, SDPU(u), and NDP. The computer recognized neither of these
parties as noteworthy when building a political portrait; the first three
were counted out because of their sharp Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Transcarpathia
coloration, and NDP because it neither attracted nor repelled other parties.
In the voters' eyes NDP was politically isolated and further events showed
that they were probably right.

Also, the political map of Ukraine I made proceeding from the results
of the previous presidential campaign was also based on three factors essentially
similar to those mentioned here.

ANTIPODES

Factorization makes it possible to characterize every region using three
indices, each reflecting the level of political polarization (F1, the first
column in the chart), conservatism, and skepticism (F2 and F3 columns,
respectively). Suppose we consider political antipodes symbolizing the
entire range of electoral sentiments. The first pair - Rivne and Donetsk
oblasts - have predominant Right (Rivne) and Left (Donbas) coloration.
The western electorate, indifferent to conservative trends (F2 close to
nil), shows a degree of interest in Green pragmatism (F3). Those in the
east are much more categorical, responding to both conservatism and pragmatism
with a "Left march" ...

The next pair - Chernihiv and Odesa oblasts - has the largest number
of pensioners (30%) and a great deal of confidence in "peasant socialism."
The latter is rooted in the councils of people's deputies (that can be
effective only under party dictatorship) and collective farms (which remain
ineffective under all conditions). Still, one should not underestimate
the role of ideological factors on older voters. Barely above the survival
level, pensioners giver their votes to those promising them at least something.
And the electoral technology is simple, really: let's vote the way our
collective farm chairman told us, otherwise he won't give us any firewood.
In Odesa oblast, electoral priorities are altogether different. Keeping
at Ukraine's average polarization and conservatism level, these people
know that party functionaries' promises are worthless (e.g., skepticism),
just as they know that the Green program is not likely to accomplish anything
for their benefit (e.g., pragmatism). Regardless of how well the candidates
might keep their promises, the voters cast their ballots for slogans rather
than deeds.

KYIV

The capital's electorate is very heterogeneous. Considering passport
registration restrictions and the absence of a housing market throughout
the Soviet decades, those who settled in Kyiv were mostly party protОgОs
or students, servicemen, construction workers, and janitors - people in
their twenties to forties. The result is Ukraine's smallest number of pensioners
(17%). After moving to the capital people took their time changing their
regional mentality, and often enough never changed it. There is progressive
intellectual Kyiv, nomenklatura Kyiv, and that of workers, bazaar traders,
criminals, and beggars. There is also business Kyiv. The electorate is
sufficiently educated and "humanitarianized" to understand the ideals of
national rebirth. It is also sufficiently "lumpenized" to assess these
ideals based on food costs. Various strata of the capital's electorate
embody Ukraine demographically and politically. The picture shows that
Kyiv voters, despite the versatility of their social and political motivations,
are the most constructive in this country. Evidence of this is found in
(a) the balanced position of the Right and Left vectors in terms of polarization;
(b) the apparent rejection of nomenklatura-collective-farm socialism; unambiguous
revulsion toward politicking and inclination toward real serious work (as
personified by the Greens during the parliamentary questions - whether
or not deservedly is another matter). I would rather live in a country
whose voters behaved like those of Kyiv.

By Volodymyr VOITENKO,

MD, Professor, State Ukrainian Prize laureate

 

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