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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

Again Pressure on Kyiv

13 November, 2012 - 00:00

One bit of bad news, Pakistan’s nuclear tests, was followed by another, much less conspicuous one: another cold spell in the Moscow-Kyiv relationships. No one seems to have bothered to analyze where it could lead and who can threaten with what.

Ukraine and Russia, being the largest performers on the post-Soviet stage, cannot come to terms on several issues, as evidenced by Russian Foreign Minister Primakov’s latest visit to Kyiv. Russia wants Kyiv to comply with its every requirement, seeing this as the proper stand for its strategic partner’s stand, to condemn NATO expansion which Ukrainian Foreign Minister Borys Tarasiuk says Kyiv welcomes, give up the idea of delimiting sea frontiers, and immediately ratify the zero option treaty without any reservations whatever. And this is only part of the apple of discord shown the general public.

Moscow’s pressure policy means that the Kremlin leaders are not sure of Leonid Kuchma’s — or any other Ukrainian President’s — obedience. Five years ago Russia conducted long and seemingly abortive talks on the withdrawal of its troops from the Baltic Republics. They ended quickly and effectively after the US President and Congress stepped in.

In this case, Ukraine has a certain advantage. The Verkhovna Rada ratified the friendship treaty with Russia while the Duma is backing down, insisting that the instrument does not correspond to Russia’s national interests. Informed sources in Ukrainian diplomatic circles say there is no cause for alarm; the Black Sea Navy accords to be submitted by Mr. Kuchma to Parliament have no clauses banning reductions in the terms of Russian lease of naval bases and infrastructures. Moreover, this pressure policy has exhausted itself and everyone realizes that it is being applied as a kind of psychological weapon.

Yet the fact remains that Moscow is pressuring Kyiv, refusing to honor its own commitments — and not only because it longs for the time when Kremlin decisions were absolutely binding on one-sixth of the globe; another, probably even more compelling, reason is that Ukraine is objectively much weaker than Russia, politically as well as economically. Russia insists that only its voice be heeded regardless of changes in the European situation. Russia forced its textiles onto European markets. Russia is actually diversifying its energy supply sources. Russia, not Ukraine, is spared financial crisis by constant IMF injections and Western support.

In other words, Moscow has more than enough levers to pressure Kyiv and its arsenal is not depleting with the years. The reason for this is a different story, something which Foreign Ministry people refer to as irrelevant in the foreign policy domain.

In other words, Ukraine has two options: (a) solving its own problems (not without aid from the West, of course), using Mr. Tarasiuk’s diplomatic skill and experience, integrating into Europe as deeply as possible, and (b) continuing its soliloquies about how much this country needs reforms and foreign investment, while reducing its national status to that of a Russian guberniya.

 

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