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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

In Anticipation of Crisis

13 November, 2012 - 00:00

Last week seems to have sharpened an issue which has remained open in Ukraine over the past several years, and which can be briefly formulated as this question: Will this country be hit by a real, full-scale and ruthlessly destructive crisis?

The financial crisis in Russia made one take a closer look at domestic fiscal problems. In this sense the “Financial Crisis: Myth or Reality” roundtable was extremely interesting. Summing up generally available information, it made it sound in an entirely new key. Among other things, it transpired that 9 months from now the Cabinet will have to pay off Hr 9 billion worth of domestic government bonds, and that this amount indicates the absolute liabilities, less back wages, etc. After numerous futile fund-raising attempts using administrative techniques, the only alternative, it seems, is starting up the money printing presses. And this alternative is prompted by the artificial boosting of the bank rate, induced by the crisis in Russia. In other words, there will be financial problems and to spare, and solving them will be the Cabinet’s sole responsibility.

Last week made it clear that the problems with the Ukrainian Cabinet may well make it deserted when it comes time to actually combat the ongoing crisis. The Ukrainian President tried to clarify the matter, declaring that he was prepared to let the Left form a Cabinet if a leftist Speaker were elected. Of course, there will not be a leftist government, but the natural question remains: What kind of government will Ukraine have? It should be pointed out that Ukrainian politics currently seem to be driven by the sole idea of passing the buck. Thus, given the absence of a Parliament majority, Mr. Pustovoitenko’s Cabinet could hold the fort for quite some time, because no one wants to assume responsibility. The horrible thing is that the current Cabinet can be retired for political reasons, namely the outcome of the Speaker’s election. This will surely be followed by lengthy confusion until a new one is formed. We have all seen what Mr. Pustovoitenko’s government is all about. Seeing his Cabinet work “without portfolio” until the crisis ax falls could be much worse.

Crisis is also to be expected on the international arena. Official Kyiv does not seem eager to honor its commitments. Those in control unofficially are getting increasingly irritated by the West. The response to Mr. Brzezinski’s visit in certain quarters serves to corroborate both trends. Most regrettably, their denominator is to be sought outside the rational domain, best described as the reaction of a housewife who has to admit important visitors to a dirty apartment.

 

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