Back to where we started?

How will history describe the events and declarations that took place on November 19 in Yalta against the backdrop of the CIS summit? Could it be that this day marked the beginning of a new era in the relations between Ukraine and Russia that would allow the two countries to overcome the crisis and enter a phase of well-being, even though the price paid for it would long afterward remain an unpleasant, disturbing memory?

Emotions aside, the whole affair doesn’t look too bad. “Ukraine has paid and will continue make timely payments (for gas supplies); in addition, we will meticulously discharge our functions in terms of gas transit,” said Yulia Tymoshenko, opening a sitting of the Ukrainian-Russian Intergovernmental Commission’s economic cooperation committee after her meeting with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Putin, for his part, also tried to make only pleasant statements: “ We have found it possible to meet each other halfway and adjust our previous accords. After these accords are duly processed, no one should have any problems.”

The Ukrainian prime minister expects that, starting on Jan. 1, 2010, Ukraine will for the first time be paid European prices for gas transit across its territory to Europe, and that Naftohaz Ukrainy will thus receive billions of dollars worth of revenues. Putin confirmed: “Gas transit payments will increase by approximately 60 percent; we will do this because this is envisaged by the contracts, and Gazprom has openly accepted this.”

Naturally, so far few know what was really said during the talks behind closed doors. Putin’s promise not to levy penalties for insufficient gas importation costs a lot. So far, several return favors are in order. Tymoshenko proposed an exchange of minority stocks of the Ukrainian aircraft construction holding company and Russia’s United Aircraft Construction Association (OAK). Putin didn’t mind although he said that it “it’s necessary to assess the contributions on both sides.”

Ukraine has met Russia halfway in the prestigious nuclear power engineering industry. A draft agreement has been prepared and coordinated, providing for the construction of two power units at the Khmelnytsky Nuclear Power Station. Cooperation is being expanded in terms of prospecting for, development, and processing of uranium ore deposits. There is a draft long-term contract on nuclear fuel supplies to Ukraine. This may be the price we’ll pay for the penalties not demanded by Russia.