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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

Battles in Damascus

Ihor SEMYVOLOS: It is a very important signal for the people that the government will change in the nearest time
30 August, 2012 - 00:00

The situation in Syria has recently aggravated. The liberation army and the government forces are battling near Damascus. The government air forces are keeping the western suburbs under fire. The opposition activists declare that at least 60 people have died due to bombardments, mainly in Sunnite areas.

Meanwhile, the rebels managed to bring down a government forces helicopter. The Syrian state mass media confirmed this fact, however, without going into any details.

The new wave of violence has overwhelmed the city of Aleppo in the north of the country. The opposition claims that the government forces execute fire without even trying to spare the civilians. Aleppo is the economic center of Syria. The city is strategically important for the rebels as well as for the government forces. The opposition insists that it controls at least half of the city but their positions are very unstable because of lacking ammunition and constant attacks of the government air forces and artillery.

The new Egyptian leader Islamist Mahamed Morsi has urged to remove the Syrian president. He addressed this offer to the foreign allies of the Syrian President Bashar Assad. Morsi is going to express his idea during his visit to China and to Russia later this week. “We are asking the democratic world and these countries to support the struggle of the Syrian people and help them make their dream come true: liberate the country from the current regime,” the Egyptian president emphasized.

Meanwhile, more and more people are escaping from Syria. Turkey has already accepted over 80,000 refugees. In these circumstances the Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has asked for help. “The number of refugees is constantly growing. The global community has to share this burden with us,” he declared. Over the last year and a half that the conflict has been in progress more than 200,000 Syrians have left their country. Turkey has accepted most of them. Now the government of the country is asking the UN to create “security zones” inside Syria and help with funding.

The Day asked the representative of the Ukrainian Embassy to Syria and the Ukrainian expert from the Center for Middle Eastern Studies to comment on the recent developments in this country.

Yevhen IHNATOVSKY, head of the consular section in the Ukrainian Embassy to the Syrian Arab Republic:

“In the east of Damask the situation has been acute for quite a while. Armed conflicts between the government forces and the rebels are going on in communities near the Syrian capital. In our diplomatic mission we can hear shots, blastoffs since large-caliber weapons, tanks, mine throwers and helicopters are being used. As for the last days, I would not say that the situation especially aggravated. The periods of temporary stability alternate with the periods of new armed conflicts, which, as a rule, activate in the evening, when it is dark.”

How does this influence the work of the embassy?

“It does and we are working to prepare the next stage of our people’s evacuation. I am speaking about the preparation of documents for those who want to come back home. We have a lot of work but we are doing business as normal.”

How do you think will finish the conflict between the rebels and the government?

“Now it is still difficult to predict the development of this situation. The conflict in the country is characterized by gradually activating confrontation, whose consequences are difficult to predict. I can say that in the near future the developments will remain the same. The periods of provisional stabilization will alternate with the periods of aggravation and activation of the armed conflict. It will last from one to three months.”

Ihor SEMYVOLOS, executive director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies:

“Some experts are trying to put this question the following way: are these the battles in Damascus or for Damascus? It is very important. I can tell you that theses are still the battles in Damascus. I cannot say that it is the ultimate attack of the rebels, which will resolve the question.

“On the other hand, the rebels should only penetrate a small town and start formally controlling at least a part of it. Moreover, they can maneuver, attack or retire demonstrating their presence. They do not have to control the whole town. Instead, the opposite side has to control the whole town to be able to declare it. It is much more complicated since it requires enormous resources, which are limited, and constantly diminish in the condition of the civil war. The point is that in such conditions every citizen has to choose: constantly confirm their loyalty or not do it. In conditions of diminishing resources these tactics are more beneficial for the liberation army than the government forces. The regular army cannot win in such conditions. It can only suppress the rebels’ actions for some period of time, until it has some resources. The partisans’ tactic is clear: as they have insufficient resources, they can only make people feel their presence and that they control the significant territory. It means that it is dangerous to show loyalty towards the current regime. It is a very significant signal for the rest of people that the government will change in the nearest time. It destroys the basis of the regime and makes the military not want to fight for the regime and decrease the loyalty of the groups that the regime and businesses rely on. So, as a consequence, sooner or later the regime should collapse. However, it is inappropriate to declare that it is going to happen right now.”

The other day the rebels demonstrated the photos of killed children and women as a result of the air attacks by the government forces. Did the West and UN react adequately?

“Unfortunately, decisions are made taking into account certain political interests. They managed to do it with Libya, at least because China and Russia did not vote. In the case of Syria the situation is just the opposite. Nobody wants to destroy the clumsy system of international relations.

“On the other hand, the fact that the government forces use the artillery and aviation to regain the territory from the rebels multiplies the victims among the civilians. In its turn, it makes people, who have not participated in the civil war, get involved into it since they worry about the safety of their families. They have associations since they see killed children and women and assume that it can happen to their families. Thus people enter the ranks of the rebels.”

How should our government get ready for the collapse of the Syrian government whereas Russia, for instance, accepts both sides of the conflict?

“Ukraine belongs to the club of Friends of the Syrian people. I think that within this club Ukraine can resolve questions of the humanitarian aid for the Syrian people. As for the Russians, they think that they influence the global politics and their role is the one of ‘relief commander.’ Thank God, the Ukrainians do not think so. Probably, the humanitarian aid is better than arms.”

By Mykola SIRUK, The Day
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