Change of “watcher”?

The media have leaked that Vladislav Surkov may be brought back to Russia’s government service. Surkov, dubbed as the Kremlin’s “gray eminence” and chief ideologist, is to be appointed “officer in charge of Ukrainian-Russian relations” this week. Gazeta.ru quotes some sources as saying that the decree on appointing Surkov the president’s assistant has been drawn up and will be signed soon.

“It seemed after Dmitry Medvedev and Viktor Yanukovych had signed an agreement on extending the Black Sea Fleet base lease that things were OK in this field. But the moment when Ukraine could join the Customs Union was missed due to oversight on our part. It was the moment when Ukraine’s leadership was isolated following the imprisonment of Yulia Tymoshenko, but now the EU no longer sets tough conditions for her release. This amply illustrates bad political planning and routine political work. In this situation, Surkov was told to oversee the Ukraine field the way people used to be told to oversee the problem-ridden agriculture,” the newspaper quotes political scientist Gleb Pavlovsky as saying.

We requested Lilia SHEVTSOVA, a senior fellow at the Moscow Carnegie Center, to comment on the likely appointment of Vladislav Surkov as “one in charge of” Ukraine.

“The Kremlin’s politics is the crescendo of Byzantinism devoid of sophistication and a strategic dimension. Byzantine rulers would still think of the consequences of at least the first step. Surkov has not yet been appointed. Too many trial balloons have been sent up lately before Putin made a decision – sometimes completely differently than expected. But even if we presume that Surkov will be appointed ‘one in charge of Russian-Ukrainian relations,’ this will mean that these relations will be withdrawn from the jurisdiction of President Putin’s other assistant for international affairs, Yury Ushakov, and [Foreign Minister] Sergei Lavrov, for this sphere of international relations is still in the line of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. But, as we know Surkov’s specific mentality and his desire, readiness, and ability to ‘do things in a Byzantine way,’ we can presume that he will perhaps manage to make Russian-Ukrainian relations not so crude and less aggressive on Russia’s part but still more unpredictable and, of course, hardly more friendly.”

To what extent is it possible that Surkov’s activities may thwart rapprochement between Ukraine and the EU?

“Again, if Surkov is appointed… There are too many ‘ifs’ and questions here. If he is appointed ‘in charge of Russian policies towards Ukraine,’ this will mean two things. Firstly, the previous ‘people in charge’ of this policy failed the job and let go of Ukraine. Secondly, Surkov is bound to do the same as the previous masterminds and architects of Russian policies towards Ukraine. This is Putin’s policy. Putin is the main architect of this policy, but the henchmen that carry it out may be changing. Should Surkov become a henchman, his topmost goal, on which his own political future will also depend, will be torpedo what will occur in Vilnius, to foil rapprochement between Ukraine and the EU. But any person in charge of Russian policies towards Ukraine will be fulfilling this task. It is not in the interests of the Kremlin to allow Ukraine to end up suddenly in someone else’s embrace.”

And what can Ukraine expect from Surkov himself?

“As Surkov is a dab hand in all kinds of subtle simulations and intrigues, we can expect that, with Surkov around, Russian policies will less resemble banging the table with a fist. There will be much more manipulations and falsifications. As Surkov likes making phantom moves and phantom allies, we can presume that big money will be spent on backing the Ukrainian forces that support a pro- Russian course. Frankly, I don’t know who else can be bribed in Ukraine so that she comes back to her ‘big brother.’ You already have Medvedchuk who works in this direction. Surkov must either support Medvedchuk’s Ukrainian Choice or set up a lot of other ‘Ukrainian choices,’ for he likes creating hoaxes in all fields of the political life. He is really a great manipulator. Maybe, the Ukrainian side is mature enough to reject this kind of manipulations. Let us see…