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“The coalition should not be formed by fomenting war”

27 June, 00:00
JAMES SHERR

Below James Sherr, fellow of the Conflict Studies Research Centre, UK Defence Academy, shares his views on the Orange Coalition.

One can only hope that the newly established coalition will be a lasting and effective one. But Ukraine needs more than hopes. Democracy exists in Ukraine, but the democratic process is still not irreversible. It cannot become irreversible as long as political forces that support the old regime know they can survive if they act in the old manner. Such forces in Central Europe realized the irreversibility of the democratic process more than a decade ago. The Party of Regions, however, seems unaware of this and it has no grounds to do so. This party will not be divided into parts, transform itself, or demonstrate other changes until it realizes that it has no future as a national political force and that it will remain a regional political party whose influence will only continue to wane.

Will the Orange Coalition be able to realize the ideals proclaimed during the revolution, or will it again disappoint or demoralize the country? One has to be realistic. A coalition government should rely on compromise rather than on fomenting war. The confrontation between Yulia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko is a means of inciting the internal war that was proclaimed even before the warring sides signed a truce.

Why was this option chosen? Of course, Tymoshenko is more popular than her BYuT coalition, which obtained 22 percents of the vote. Poroshenko is less popular than Our Ukraine, which won 14 percent. Why is Poroshenko regarded as a candidate for parliamentary speaker in a country that is becoming a parliamentary republic? Does this situation not serve as proof of how closely business remains associated with the Orange government?

What objective did the politicians who offered this confrontation scenario have in mind? I think it unlikely that they counted on success — just as unlikely as the Party of Regions counting on their rivals’ success. Should any behind-the-scenes arrangements be concluded between the Orange Coalition and the Party of Regions, the latter will prepare to take power into their own hands. The regionals will use their edge: a strong power vertical, able use of Western and Russian promotional campaigns, and brutal exploitation of financial resources to penetrate administrative structures. Will Tymoshenko be able to counteract this effectively? Will she receive effective assistance? We can only watch what happens.

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