COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF HAS A PREMONITION OF CIVIL WAR

By Valery Zaitsev, The Day

President Leonid Kuchma said at All-Ukrainian entrepreneurs meeting that the possibility of an "open civil conflict" in Ukraine was not ruled out. If you call spade a spade, all this about a civil war which may be caused, according to the Chief Executive, by "some political initiatives related to the amending of the Constitution, including provisions about the state structure." Obviously taking account for the mood of the entrepreneurs attending the meeting, the President mentioned one more cause of civil war - a possibility for a "backsliding", i.e., suspension of privatization, nationalization of the banking system, establishment of fixed prices.

To be objective, the facts stated by President Kuchma are not that threatening. Leaving aside pure economic issues, it should be noted that the mechanism for amending the Constitution, including provisions about the state structure, is specified by the Fundamental Law. The danger of a conflict is attributed to the attempts to prevent possible amendments to the Constitution using unconstitutional, forcible methods, rather than to the amendments as such. Parliament which has no leverage on force structures can in no way be suspected in preparing the "open civil conflict". The President, who occupies the post of the Commander-in-Chief of Armed Forces and keeps all force structures under his watchful control, has much more potential in this regard. The statement of the head of the state looks more like an ill-hidden threat to exercise his huge influence to the utmost, if the decisions adopted by new Parliament are against his will.

No doubt, the President is quite right to have noticed that politicization of society poses a substantial threat to the national safety. One may also agree with him, that the politicization growth is caused artificially. But who gave origin to the main artificial conflicts for the last few years? It was not Parliament, but President Kuchma who put forward initiatives for various polls and referendums; it was not some parliamentary official but Ukrainian President and his advisor Anatoly Halchynsky who suggested, in public, just a few weeks ago to "institute presidential government in Ukraine for a term of 2-3 three years". Has the Guarantor of the Constitution imposed any penalties on Mr. Halchynsky, the least severe of which would be an immediate resignation?

President Kuchma's policy is dangerous. It is so dangerous that a ghost of civil war is already looming in the country. But unfortunately there was no word from the President, whether he or members of his administration will continue to fan the flames of conflict.