Could win in the first round

On Independence Day, four presidential candidates — Socialist leader Oleksandr Moroz, ex-Premier Yevhen Marchuk, Speaker Oleksandr Tkachenko. and Cherkasy Mayor Volodymyr Oliynyk — declared their further joint action during the campaign. The message addressed to the Ukrainian nation, signed in Kaniv (Cherkasy oblast), stresses that «in response to this important move, most of the electorate will vote for one of us as a presidential candidate, whose name will be made known at a later date, already in the first round, so that the second round will not be necessary.»

Yevhen Marchuk told journalists, «Those in power are doing all they can to make the people believe that the elections will somehow or other be falsified, and that Leonid Kuchma will win anyway. He won't. Not this time. There are four of us and we will use all our capabilities to block any falsification,» reports The Day's Yevhen BRUSLYNOVSKY.

This sensational move made by Leonid Kuchma's most formidable rivals allows one to assume that a powerful election bloc has been created, fundamentally changing the campaign's picture.

The reader ought to remember that almost a month ago Marchuk, Moroz, and Tkachenko signed an election fair play accord. It was the first step toward consolidating the efforts of different political forces. Later they were joined by Volodymyr Oliynyk and Yuri Karmazin. Yuri Kostenko, leader of one of the Rukh sections, voiced his support of the pact. In fact, the latter marked the beginning of the «crystallization» of 15 presidential candidates.

Leonid Kuchma, Progressive Socialist leader Natalia Vitrenko, Rukh leader Hennady Udovenko, and number one Communist Petro Symonenko, declared their opposition to the tripartite pact. Actually, they have rallied round President Kuchma, for their conduct corresponds with his election strategy. It is generally known that its key element is meeting with the Communist Symonenko in the second round and winning under the Red peril motto. Comrade Vitrenko is assigned the role of an «election trap» for Oleksandr Moroz and his voters, while former Foreign Minister Hennady Udovenko, the President's faithful protege, is supposed to surrender the Western Ukrainian constituencies.

Certain other presidential candidates have also tried to form alliances. Thus, Social Democratic leader Vasyl Onopenko and Yuri Kostenko announced the creation of a bloc. According to Mr. Kostenko, its principal aim is to put forth a single national democratic candidate. In addition, a number of volunteer and party organizations staged a forum under the auspices of the Open Politics Movement, also looking for single candidate.

However, the problem was actually solved by the Kaniv Four. After their joint statement the following became clear:

* Communist leader Petro Symonenko will not be a single Leftist candidate; it is also possible that he will eventually support the candidate chosen by the four;

* the presidential candidates have determined their positions. Almost finally, so that the new candidate's name should be looked up in the rather short Kaniv roster;

* no other candidates will manage a stronger and more influential anti-Kuchma coalition; the emergence of the Kaniv Four has changed fundamentally the alignment of forces in the election arena; the single Left-centrist candidate to be determined by the Four will frustrate the current President's campaign strategy; Leonid Kuchma's only resource, the government machine, is under threat, for there was nothing coincidental about the four major contenders calling on the heads of regional, city, and district administrations, law enforcement agencies, Security Service, and tax administrations to stop their arbitrary acts.

At present, many are realizing that there is a real alternative to Leonid Kuchma's renewed presidency, and that they have nothing to fear supporting it. There is a possibility that the domino principle will set to work within power structures, causing the current chief executive's campaign stratagems to fall apart one after the next. Yes, there is the oligarchs' support, they will not cast the ballots.

It is also possible that, given the new alignment of forces, the ranks of Kuchma exponents will wear thin. Suffice it to recall Oleksandr Moroz's forecast that United Social Democrats will change their pro- presidential stand before the election.