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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

Economic Crisis Becomes Political

13 November, 2012 - 00:00

Parliament has begun deliberating the Cabinet's anti-crisis bills. Six of these are slated for debate by September 18; sixteen are still in committee, scheduled for September-October; and thirteen are still with the Cabinet, on the agenda for November-December.

Is this the anti-crisis package, which is supposed to improve the overall economic situation according to a fixed short schedule? What does it mean? Volodymyr Filenko of the NDP could not restrain himself from caustically noting the Speaker’s unwelcome slip of the tongue: “Mr. Tkachenko put it very accurately: ‘We must overcome the anti-crisis situation in this country.’ Mind you, not the crisis, but anti-crisis! And this is precisely what we are doing...”

Despite the overall placid atmosphere, the Verkhovna Rada’s participation in “overcoming the crisis” is taking place against a rather explosive backdrop. The Socialist and Peasant parties published a statement demanding the Cabinet’s and President’s retirement, and pre-term presidential election, saying “political bankrupts should not run this country.”

Hromada says 170 signatures have been collected for the proposal to place the Cabinet’s report on the agenda and consider its responsibility. In addition, Hromada wanted to take the floor to make a statement, but Speaker Tkachenko adamantly refused. And rightly so, for, as he told the press later, Hromada wanted to raise the matter of his own conduct.

Under the circumstances, the Communists (some sources point to their intention to show restrained loyalty toward the government) are likely to show more activity, despite certain internal disagreements — for example, in demanding that the President step down ahead of term. They also seem resolved not to surrender the presidential resignation initiative, it being very good publicity, and the idea of collecting signatures for a referendum to topple the Chief Executive.

In short, Yuliya Tymoshenko, after her boisterous start in this political season did not stay a “destructive loner” for long.

Time to bring up the matter of the economic crisis getting political in Ukraine, something like what is going on in Russia. And the point is not that Comrade Symonenko is said to have visited Gennady Ziuganov last weekend. The point is the presence of subjective possibilities and objective conditions.

When asked by The Day, Oleksandr Moroz said, “A political crisis is very possible. It might even be necessary today, because the political process must be adequate to the economic one.”

Roman Zvarych (Rukh) believes that everything depends on whether the Communists use this situation to “aggravate the negative climate”: “If they do, people in the administration will start writing cheat sheets for the President and he will blame everything on the Communists. They must consider this factor before the next elections.”

Communist Victor Ponedilko apparently considers that the time is not ripe: “We will insist on one point in the anti-crisis program. Freezing arrears on internal government bonds. But this will not suit the banks and some at the Cabinet. It will be then we will close in for a free-for-all.”

Oleksandr Yemets (NDP) is convinced that because of the Cabinet’s getting smart — something he hadn’t expected — it succeeded in taking a number of measures aimed at getting loans from the IMF and World Bank, and “Ukraine has been spared the transformation of the economic crisis as a political one at this stage.”

Socialist Viktor Suslov (he has every right to start every statement with “I warned you, didn’t I, when I was Minister of Finance”) thinks that, because of the Cabinet’s wrong-headed economic policy, “the situation will go from bad to worse.” He also believes the President has already realized that “this course must be changed,” and that Mr. Kuchma is “most interested” in an effective policy. In response to The Day’s question whether this means that the President may retire the Cabinet, Suslov said, “That’s precisely what I have in mind. With this government — people who are not very competent and who are to blame for the crisis — on his hands, the President can hardly count on winning the next campaign.”

Now it remains to find out who is struggling for what: the Cabinet’s retirement, President Kuchma’s victory, or for toppling him; who considers his aim important and who cares for the process itself. Dmytro Tabachnyk thinks that it is too early to describe Ukraine as having avoided a political crisis, “simply because there is no unique Ukrainian experience. There is world experience. An economic crisis results in an aggravated confrontation between the branches of power, so that opposition forces everywhere are objectively nourished by the process and can get even with their adversary. Ukraine is no exception to the rule.”

 

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