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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

AN END TO MULTIVECTOR WAFFLING AND A COURSE WESTWARD?

13 November, 2012 - 00:00

Newly appointed Foreign Minister Borys Tarasiuk, usually very reserved in his statements, spoke at a May 18 seminar on expansion processes in Europe. Among other things he said that Ukraine has not yet applied for admittance to NATO. The reasons are generally known: this country does not meet any of the Alliance’s requirements. Moreover, the populace is not unanimously in support of the idea. However, Mr. Tarasiuk stressed, the Ukraine-NATO Charter had become another step toward accession.

There are reasons to assume that Ukraine’s foreign political course, which wavered so long between Moscow and Washington, has been finally set - at least as long as Mr. Tarasiuk remains in office — contrary to what the Ukrainian leadership has said or will say.

Once, before his appointment, Mr. Tarasiuk said that, theoretically, Ukraine could raise the matter of its NATO membership in five to seven years. Someone somewhere in Kyiv must have estimated that by that time Ukraine would be on the road of economic growth and that this would help change people’s mentality. The rest would be left to diplomacy and Ukraine’s desire to join the Alliance would be recognized by Moscow, the rest of Europe, and the people in Ukraine. As it is, there will be plenty of work to be done by diplomats. Among other things, German political analysts in a recent series of articles regard Ukraine as just a buffer between Russia and European countries, and this only given proper US coaching.

Judging from Mr. Tarasiuk’s words, Ukraine — at least its political elite — is prepared to change its much advertised non-alignment posture. This, in turn, suggests a repetition of the Turkish variant (i.e., its admittance to NATO thanks to US pressure, although its repeated attempts to join EU have been immediately blocked, either due to the Cyprus problem or for other reasons).

In the case of Ukraine, among the decisive factors blocking admission are its weak economy, inconsistent foreign and domestic policies, and of course the Russian factor. As result, formally playing a key role in European security, this country was not even invited to the conference on EU and NATO expansion. In other words, Ukraine has no place in their expansion programs. By contrast, the attitude toward Bulgaria (which is not far ahead of Ukraine economically) is very different. There is no question of choosing a course, because Ukraine has already chosen one. The course has been set on Europe.

Yet neither Ukraine nor Europe are prepared to consider Kyiv’s direct involvement in the European expansion process.

After all, who needs a large country that cannot solve its problems of unemployment, plummeting living standards, political and economic instability, soaring crime, and all-pervasive corruption?

 

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