Friends or family?

Despite the fact that Euroskepticism is growing, especially since the French and Dutch parliaments torpedoed the European constitution and the opponents of EU expansion gained some advantage — little as it was — during the elections in Germany, a team of Finnish, Lithuanian, and Polish political scientists have published a report that will gladden the hearts of Euro-optimists. Friends or Family? Finnish, Lithuanian and Polish perspectives on the EU’s Policy towards Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova is the work of Grzegorz Gromadzki, an analyst at the Warsaw-based Stefan Batory Foundation, Raimundas Lopata, director of the Institute of International Relations at the University of Vilnius, and Kristi Raik, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA). Last spring the trio discussed their draft report in Kyiv with Ukrainian political scientists, politicians, and journalists. Poland and Lithuania are long-time lobbyists of Ukrainian interests in the West. Presidents Kwasniewski and Adamkus played a key role during the revolutionary roundtables in Kyiv. Finland has amassed considerable experience of the Northern Dimension, the EU’s relations with the northern and western regions of Russia. Some initiatives developed by the Northern Dimension have been proposed for use in relations with the European Union’s eastern neighbors. Helsinki favors EU expansion. The Finns, of course, are more interested in what is happening next door, but they are showing a certain degree of interest in Ukraine, thanks to FIIA publications. In fact, Finland is rather close to Ukraine, and in the not so distant past both our countries were ruled by the Russian empire.

The report’s main thrust is that Ukraine, Moldova, and Belarus (provided the latter country democratizes) must become EU members. “The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) marks a step towards creating a more coherent approach, but it only provides a general framework, which does not as such help to address the specific challenges in the Eastern neighbourhood... The practical benefits of the prospect of membership have been proved by the successful transition of Poland, the Baltic states and other new EU members. Once the pre-accession process is underway, it creates a strong motivation and determination in the candidate states to carry out political and economic reforms. Even though it is understood in Ukraine, for example, that the adoption of EU norms is necessary for the country in any case, having the perspective of membership would create an incentive of unique strength,” write Grzegorz Gromadzki, Raimundas Lopata, and Kristi Raik, adding that “concern over the Union’s ability to function is entirely justified. It is also true that enlargement must stop somewhere. However, it cannot exclude the three Eastern neighbours that are an undeniable part of Europe. The integration of Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus is a matter that tests the EU’s fundamental purpose: to safeguard peace and democracy in Europe. Exclusion would come at the expense of serious damage to the EU’s credibility and identity... Moreover, enlargement has already essentially changed the nature of the EU: it has become less coherent, with variable groups of member states preparing initiatives among themselves before bringing them to the common agenda, and with less discussion including all members. The inclusion of some or all of the three countries would not make a considerable difference to this tendency.”

The researchers believe that, “A typical indication of the reactive nature of EU policy is the ‘Let’s wait and see what the next election brings’ attitude. This way of thinking should be quashed. In order to support democracy in the neighbouring countries, the EU should send clear and positive messages in the early stages of their election campaigns...the more it offers concrete steps and prospects that bring the neighbours closer to the Union, the more successful the pro-European, pro-democratic forces are likely to be. This is a highly relevant point with respect to both the parliamentary elections in Ukraine and the presidential elections in Belarus, both scheduled for 2006...It is worth pointing out that the amount of aid received by candidates is decidedly larger than assistance to neighbouring countries. Moreover, there is currently a huge imbalance between the Eastern and Southern neighbourhood to the disadvantage of the former...The Eastern members — especially the Baltic states and Poland — need to prove that they are not an ‘anti-Russian’ group within the EU but, conversely, the member states that are most concerned about the Union having good relations with Russia.”

It should be kept in mind that whatever courses of development Ukraine, Moldova, and Belarus may take will have a great impact on Russia’s development. “The involvement of Russia in the ENP is inevitable for two reasons: firstly, it is the only way to work against a ‘zero-sum game’ between the EU and Russia as competing spheres of influence; and secondly, it supports the aim of using democracy promotion in the new neighbouring countries as a means of encouraging Russia to move in a similar direction. However, the inclusion of Russia does not grant it the right of veto or imply any deal-making between the EU and Russia with respect to their common neighbours without the involvement of the latter.”

A European Commission member told The Day that for the Finnish-Polish-Lithuanian report to exert any tangible influence on EU politics regarding Ukraine, reputable analysts in Brussels must support this document. Meanwhile, the authors of the report note that Germany’s involvement is crucial in the implementation of the ENP policy. “Without support from Berlin, the eastern and southern members of the EU will not likely obtain active support of their efforts in that direction.” The future of the Finnish-Polish-Lithuanian recommendations depends on a whole range of complex factors, but the very existence of this report is a great advantage. The important thing is for Ukraine to put it to good use.