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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

Half a Percent in Europe’s Direction

16 November, 1999 - 00:00

The annual EBRD report seems to answer the traditional question the Ukrainian elite has been asking over the past several years: Will the European Union ever acknowledge Ukraine as a country in a position to apply for membership, on a par with its neighbors (when meeting the appropriate criteria, of course)? EBRD says Ukraine’s current economic indices not only place this country far behind but place it near the end of a list of 20 postsocialist countries, along with Russia, Tajikistan, Belarus, and Turkmenistan (the latter being accorded the most spectacular place at the very bottom of the list). EBRD experts believe Hungary has shown the best performance in the transition period, followed by Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia, the latter of which, much to the experts’ surprise, is quickly gaining momentum making up for what was lost during the years of its stagnation. However, the EBRD seems most surprised to register quickly evolving, thriving corruption in every single transition economy country.

Corruption appears to be most virulent in the post-Soviet states. EBRD data shows that bribery accounts for 5.7% of all income. This is somewhat higher pro rata than in Central Europe with its 3.3% figure. But incomes are also higher there. In this sense the best record is that of Croatia, 2%. In neighboring Slovenia, only 7.7% of the firms admit to frequently giving bribes. The largest number of bribe- giving firms, companies, and enterprises is registered in Azerbaijan: 59.3%. In Russia the corresponding figure is 29.2%, Poland 32.7%, and Hungary 31.2%.

In terms of prospects, the EBRD expects economic growth in all countries of the region next year, with the brightest vistas seen for Tajikistan with 6% (compared to 5% forecast for this year). Albania is expected to grow 5% (against this year’s 8% forecast). Poland is considered very likely to boost its economy by 4.5% (3.5% forecast this year) and Hungary by 4% (vs. 3% this year). These are the leaders, although their markedly different starting conditions are generally known.

Among the outsiders (in terms of growth rates) are the Czech Republic (2% in 2000; nil this year), Russia (1% next year after this year’s stagnation plus perhaps unaccounted-for losses sustained in the Caucasus campaign), Ukraine (0.5% in 2000 and 2.5% this year). Even though ours and the Czech two percents are so very different, one is eager to believe this because now one gets the impression that after eight years of independence Ukraine is becoming a completely alien element in Europe.

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