From Maidan to Triumfalnaya Square

The Day asked Gleb PAVLOVSKY, Russia’s noted spin doctor, for comment on events in Russia in the aftermath of elections.

“As they say in Odesa, Abram, you are right, and you, Sarah, are right, too. Everything is under control in the country. The authorities are rocking the boat themselves. Neither the West, nor the opposition forces could not have hit the voters’ expectations as explicitly and badly as the power did in early September by its reshuffle inside the tandem and Putin’s nomination as a presidential candidate. After that it crushed the rating of their party United Russia and Putin and Medvedev’s ratings as well. They contributed to it by manipulating the results of the elections since, ironically enough, the exit poll ordered by the government and carried out in Moscow by the Public Opinion Foundation demonstrated that 27 percent of voters had supported United Russia, however, the official result was 20 percent higher. Who did it? Did the opposition do it?

“That is why today the Kremlin and the Moscow White House are two main Russian revolutionists. So, they should not get offended that they stirred the people up in the large cities.”

There is an opinion that “the Kremlin does not understand anymore what is going on in the country.”

“I have repeatedly said it. Unfortunately, I had to state it back at the beginning of the current year. Strictly speaking, my declaration concerning this issue resulted in the fact that I lost the possibility to consult the Kremlin. The strong point of the former president was that they used the real political information and not the wishes of one or another official. Today the Presidential Administration asks ‘How may I serve you?’ That is why they cannot use the real information. As far as I know, all the party bodies and information administrations are shocked how the Kremlin takes the information.”

Do you share the opinion of the Spa-nish newspaper El Pais writing that “the Sunday parliamentary elections demonstrated that the Russian society has become more mature and is ready to protect its self-respect against the anachronistic manipulations of the ruling class lusting after power”?

“Unfortunately, I do not. Vice versa, the society has politically degraded over the last 15 years. One can blame the power for this degradation. On the other hand, there are groups inside the society that need the real information and rational policy, the one of the European type. These groups are related to the business community, the cultural and public life. The citizens give the tone in Russia and not villagers or suburbanites. The citizens want something else. I cannot say that they are politically mature but they are very, very angry.”

Why cannot this anger transform into real actions: creation of a party and receiving mandates in the parliament? Probably, Russia has to evolve this way and not through another riot like it was in 1917?

“The year 1917 is neither here no there. Thank God, we do not have either the world war or the former Russian village. The problem is absolutely different. The economic crisis in the world coincided with the crisis of the political parties. It is a very negative tendency. Russia is warming up while Europe is in a recession. Meanwhile, the European and Ukrainian parties are having hard times. There are a lot of public forces but they do not see themselves in the old parliamentary parties. On the other hand, the parliamentary parties do not see those forces. It is a problem. If any changes happen in Russia, I am afraid, they will not be liberal.”

As for the recent protest moods in Russia, do they have any potential to develop or will they be suppressed?

“It is difficult to say. In all probability they will decline after a certain animation. However, they will be used by the parliamentary opposition to bargain some bonuses from the government. It is quite good but is unlikely to result in any long-term positive changes.”

Some of the observers suppose that “Putin is facing a difficult choice now.” The prime minister can either strengthen the control of the Russian democracy or “liberalize it and admit that the attempts to keep such a rich and educated country as Russia enfettered are vain.” What do you think about it?

“I think that this opinion is far from reflecting the real situation in Russia. It has different problems. First of all I have to say that Putin is an interesting and strong politician and, no matter what, is the most interesting political figure today. Some might like it or not but it is true. He has a concept and he knows how to realize it. However, this politician has made several mistakes this year. The most serious one was that he humiliated the president Medvedev and made him refuse to run for president. It turned out that the voters who supported Putin did not excuse this mistake. That is why he is in a difficult situation now. However, Putin is resolving another task: how to make the po-licy more movable, active and liberal. The liberalization does not solve the economic and national problems in Russia but is likely to aggravate them. The liberalization does not solve the problem of more severe competition for the Eurasian markets. In all probability, they will compete using the force. That is why the agenda should not be simplified. Navalny can expose the corruption well but he is unable to offer any alternative of prospects.”

Could you sum up, what will the tendencies be in Russia when Putin is elected for the third term? Will he liberalize the Russian policy?

“I think another question is topical today: who will gain the political model created by Putin and Medvedev that is in crisis now. The thing is that nobody is able to create another model. It is absolutely clear that there is a struggle for this model whatever those who struggle say. This model has to be more acceptable for people, less dangerous and risky, more convenient for business and more European. However, breaking this model is not even discussed. Of course, two people, Putin and Medvedev, have the advantage now. Every of them can seize the situation by heading the malcontent and suggesting a way out. I do not know whether it will be done or not, but I am skeptical about authorities’ possibilities to seriously assess separate political information.”