Mayoral Elections in Kyiv: Winners and Losers

The Kyivites cast their ballots in the Kyiv mayoral and city council elections on May 25. The outcome was well to be expected. The “democrats” had failed to get united, the electorate had to choose between the candidates, and then Leonid Chernovetsky won. In fact, exit poll results show that his results were even better. In other words, the Kyiv mayor’s ambitious desire to reach the national level no longer seems farfetched.

As for the Kyiv City Council, the outcome proved rather unexpected. Exit polls done by Democratic Initiatives and Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KMIS) point to seven or eight political forces passing muster, namely, the Chernovetsky Bloc (25.7%), BYuT (23.4%), Vitalii Klitschko Bloc (12.7%), Lytvyn Bloc (10.4%), HAK (Kyiv Public Activists’ Bloc: 4.3%), Party of Regions (4.0%), Katerynchuk Bloc (3.9%), and All-Ukraine (VO) Svoboda (3.0%).

Among the sensational results of these elections were the NU-NS’s results (2.1% as per exit polls) that place this bloc right in front of the Kyiv City Council’s threshold. It lost even to such minor contestants as Tiahnybok and Katerynchuk. Party of Regions is also in a lamentable situation, considering that it collected five times fewer votes in May than it did during the parliamentary elections in September (3-4% compared to 15.04% accordingly).

Before the mayoral elections the media actively discussed Yurii Lutsenko’s statement to the effect that the president, when meeting with NU-NS people, said that this campaign should be a Battle of Stalingrad for Tymoshenko.

Was the outcome of the mayoral elections a devastating blow to Tymoshenko? On the one hand, the BYuT failed to remove Chernovetsky. This, of course, will serve to weaken the bloc and the prime minister’s positions, yet regarding these elections as another “Battle of Stalingrad” for Tymoshenko is an overstatement, mildly speaking.

First, there is a big difference between the way elections are held on the nation and local level. Many a Kyivite associate BYuT’s leader and Yulia Tymoshenko’s right hand Oleksandr Turchynov with politics, state administration, rather the municipal management, including sewers, garbage disposal, parking lots, you name it.

Second, supposing that Kyiv is “Stalingrad” for the BYuT, then what is Kyiv to our president, considering that the NU-NS ratings have dropped to the level of sociological error?

Oleksandr Turchynov mentioned this during his press conference: “One of the trends displayed by exit polls, namely double standards on the part of the Presidential Secretaria and President Yushchenko, results in Yushchenko’s ratings being down to some 1.0%. Regrettably, our NU-NS allies have found themselves hostages of Viktor Yushchenko plummeting prestige. Kyiv has given his mark to our president.”

That night Turchynov tried to save his face, appearing in front of journalist clad in white. He betrayed no defeatist moods. On the contrary, he said that one of the results of the election campaign was a high level of distrust in Leonid Chernovetsky, that about seventy percent of the voters were opposed to the powers that be.

According to the political scientist Volodymyr FESENKO, the outcome of these elections is a slap in the face of the BYuT and particularly Yulia Tymoshenko, who “thought she had God by the beard and that she could act as she pleased in this country... the way people are starting to feel less enthusiastic about the BYuT is useful in principle; this will help this party upgrade its policy, its understanding of what is actually happening in this society, and get back to realities.”

Whereas the BYuT has not suffered a shattering fiasco, the NU-NS definitely has. This bloc is on the verge of final collapse in its current format. The situation is rather paradoxical: the coalition is on the verge of collapse, with the critical matter growing that can trigger off retirement of the cabinet. Still, no one is willing to assume responsibility for commencing the cabinet resignation procedures or for the official breakup of the opposition. Another thing is how long this situation will last. Several weeks, several months? Not much longer in all likelihood.