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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

Menu for Gore

13 November, 2012 - 00:00

US Vice President Albert Gore and Leonid Kuchma had a delicious joint lunch that consisted of soup with halushky and Kyiv pancakes. Then he flew by helicopter around Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (CNPP), said once again that the Chernobyl catastrophe is a plague for all humanity, took a plane and left for Moscow to meet his new counterpart – Sergei Kirienko. He left behind five documents signed during the Kuchma-Gore Committee session in Kyiv, promises to support Ukraine in its negotiations with the IMF and Ukrainian route for transporting Caspian oil to Europe (as one of several options). During the wrap-up press-conference he looked confident and serene, unlike Kuchma and other Ukrainian delegation members. Because, in general the menu that was offered to Gore proved to be not so delicious at all.

The US Vice President came to Kyiv not only to participate in a Kuchma-Gore Committee annual session and to sign several formal documents – about mutual assistance in criminal investigations, the textile trade, and establishing a radiation ecological lab in Chornobyl. Apparently, his visit was supposed to answer one significant question – can the authorities rely on American support both today on the threshold of a vast financial fall and tomorrow during the Ukrainian presidential campaign. As a matter of fact, Gore’s visit showed that the American factor is very important if not the main one for the current Ukrainian policy. Here are some reasons why. Washington promised to support Ukraine in getting IMF and World Bank loans only in case of continued “critical and vigorous” (using Gore’s vocabulary) moves such as President Kuchma’s recent economic edicts.

Gore several times (and this in unlikely to be just a slip of the tongue) spoke of President Kuchma's leading role and “encouraged him to continue his important and resolute moves.” Abstaining from any assessments whether this is good or bad one has to ascertain that any serious structural changes in Ukraine are possible now (if they are possible at all) only with serious American intervention. Carnegie Fund expert on Ukraine and Russia Dr. Sherman Garnett used — and not unfoundedly — in an article devoted to Gore's visit to Kyiv the expression, tough love, which Gore also mentioned in Kyiv. Based on the comments of many official US representatives, Washington is going to support in next year's election not simply one candidate or another but the one who will be able to meet the conditions of this tough love following the same scheme that the USA applied in Russia.

The question why the Ukrainian leaders once again have snapped to attention and listen to Washington's lectures is simple to answer. For its seven years of existence as an independent state, Ukraine has been transformed from a country that gave much hope into a sanctuary of corruption, stealing international loans and its own property, unwilling to change anything and to adhere to generally accepted norms. It has created a terrible investment climate that Kuchma has been told of many times by American and European leaders, and posed the country a choice: the reforms Kuchma has only talked about during all four years of his presidency or a collapse that will start with a financial free-fall (Yushchenko already warns openly of it) and will end in the total instability of the region. One more source of tension and instability in Europe does not fit American plans. Hence, Washington has to work with the Ukrainian leadership currently in power.

Help yourself — this phrase in a latent form was repeatedly uttered by Gore while in Kyiv. In fact, all the Kuchma-Gore Committee decisions are directed not to supporting the Ukrainian government's steps toward reform, as declared officially, but to force it to create a normal economic policy with property reforms, a transparent tax and tariffs system, a decent attitude toward small business, let alone combating corruption at the top level of power. Only then, probably, it will be possible to talk about real economic cooperation at least at the level that the US maintains today with Poland, and, accordingly, about new levels of American and international assistance.

Perhaps this was the last time that Kyiv was told what finally has to be understood here: that unconditionally keeping to the rules of the game, this time stipulated very firmly by the United States in its own interest, is a condition for the survival of, if not Ukraine as a whole, then at least of its leadership.

This keeping to the rules of the game means also that Ukraine should implement the provisions of the 1995 Memorandum on closing Chornobyl nuclear plant by the year 2000. Kuchma even had to say that “no one questions the necessity of CNPP closing when on the eve of the Gore's visit the Ukrainian government made a statement which contained some doubts — that it would be impossible to close Chornobyl unless the completion of work on the Rivne and Khmelnytsky nuclear plants is financed properly. At the same time, Gore who, visiting Chornobyl last Thursday, gave an emotional speech on the global scale of the Chornobyl disaster, did not bring a single cent in additional aid, which Kyiv was also counting on. Washington would rather assist Ukraine in a general energy industry reform. Keeping to its own promises by Ukraine could lead to American assistance in establishing its own production of nuclear fuel that would lessen Kyiv's dependence on Moscow.

Perhaps, by today the only really considerable success of Ukrainian diplomacy is that (according to Gore) the USA supports the Ukrainian route for transporting Caspian oil to Europe and is ready to assist Ukraine in conducting feasibility studies. True, Gore still has not replied to Kuchma's proposal to recruit American companies to the future consortium on transporting Caspian oil. Apparently, long and hard negotiations will have to be conducted to this end.

Nobody mentioned the recent notorious scandals concerning American business in Ukraine. Instead, the United States is forcing Ukraine to introduce a more flexible tariffs and advising Kyiv to develop the Kharkiv initiative. A special working group is being established on the issue, this fall the both sides will exchange visits, and then approval is expected of a number of decisions regarding business plans submitted on joint contracts including those with participation of Turboatom, which suffered from Ukraine's decision to withdraw itself from the Russia-Iran contract to build a nuclear plant.

If Ukraine maintains good behavior the United States promises to assist it technically and politically in entering the World Trade Organization, having signed a textile trade agreement so far. At the same time, the issue of antidumping investigations of Ukrainian enterprises is slowly coming to its natural death. However, Ukraine will not acquire any new privileges in commerce until it becomes a WTO member.

What can Ukraine offer in exchange? Apparently, only its strict obedience. Otherwise, a new and much more dangerous for Kyiv coolness in the relations with the US is unavoidable. It is much harder to make serious independent policy than cook the Kyiv pancakes that Gore liked so much. And high politics does not consume hastily made Big Macs.

Photo by Valery Miloserdov, The Day:

Only one’s last hope is so emraced – Albert Gore and Leonid Kuchma meet at Mariyinsky Palace

 

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