Moscow-Warsaw

Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski, who visited the Russian capital to inaugurate the Days of Polish Science, looked pleased. And no wonder, for it was for the first time in many years that he could come to Moscow with a Left government which looks eastward much more affectionately than is Right-wing predecessors did. But the paradox of Polish foreign policy is that looking East does not yet mean looking at Ukraine. Ukraine is, rather, part of Poland’s Western image, evidence that Warsaw also plays the role of its neighbor’s protector from the Russian bear in NATO. But if the bear has turned into a teddy-bear, does anybody need protection?

My Polish colleagues say that, while Mr. Kwasniewski’s first term of office was devoted to the development of the Polish-Ukrainian dialogue, the second term is most likely to deal with the dialogue between Moscow and Warsaw. I must admit this is the case. Mr. Kwasniewski’s Ukrainian intentions coincide with the Buzek government’s position, while his Russian policies perhaps coincide with those of the Miller government. NATO headquarters is full of speculations about rapprochement with Moscow. Poland has been trying to prove for many years that its NATO membership should not jeopardize its relations with Russia. Now Warsaw has a chance to show it. Moreover, Russia can offer Poland a gas pipeline. On the other hand, by defending Ukraine, Mr. Kwasniewski has had endless problems in the West; and it finally appears that, no matter how hard you defend Kyiv, the latter finds it easier to deal with Vladimir Putin. The picture will be still clearer if we add to this the necessity to relieve tension over Kaliningrad oblast.

I do not know if Russia itself will turn this situation to advantage, for it is increasingly being drawn into the imbroglio of Asian problems, being more worried about what is happening on the Uzbek-Afghan than Russian-Polish border. Still, the desire of the Polish leadership to improve relations with Moscow is obvious. When President Kwasniewski says that these relations are at a turning point and the new Polish government will maintain not just a good but a very good relationship with its Russian counterpart, he really means it and expresses real intent to put it into practice in the immediate future. All we can hope for is that the Polish president and the new government of Poland will have sufficient strategic wisdom not to do so at our expense...