There is no doubt that the Russian financial crisis will strengthen the position of the adamantly anti-reform President of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenka. The other weekend he celebrated his 44th birthday, and the official propaganda sang the next panegyric to the wisdom of his people's leader.
Lukashenka has resolutely refused to acknowledge the economic course carried out by Russia stressing instead the rightness of his own way which has never been corrected despite urgent recommendations of its strategic ally.
“Socialist” Lukashenka has been repeatedly called upon to establish a market economy — a foundation for a united customs, economy, and political space both by his constant opponents like Nemtsov, Chubais, in a more diplomatic way, by Rybkin, Primakov, and, of course, Yeltsin himself.
Today's Belarus has preserved the collective farm system and state industry. It does not possess a stock market, there is no foreign investment, the currency exchange rate is fixed, and there is no panic in the exchange offices because people have lost all hope of finding any hard currency there. The country seems not to be exposed to any of capitalism's crises.
“God forbid the opposition comes to power. Those people would carry out the course that currently is being carried out by fraternal Russia. If the people wants to have a try, just look at our neighbors,” said Lukashenka in an interview with the Belarus TV.
Lukashenka also spoke out for even stronger control over the economy and politics, promising to raise wages by 20% as of October 1 and 25% more on January 1. He assured there will be no problems in Belarus with energy supplies, heating, and hot water in the winter and ordered the government to strengthen the system of the state control over the economy.
However, all the goods promised by Lukashenka depend directly on the position of the Russian government and Gasprom, to which Belarus owes $400 million. Only under condition that Russia preserves the system of payment for gas with Belarus goods, heat and hot water as guarantees of political stability will remain there.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of the Economy is working out a pessimistic plan in case Gasprom imposes repeatedly promised sanctions for non-payment for gas supplied. “Rubbish! There will be nothing like this in Belarus,” comments Lukashenka on the prospect.
The permanently falling Belarus ruble for the first time rose in comparison with its Russian namesake. However, everybody understands that the economy of a country that exports 70% of its production to Russia is exposed to threat with the Russian ruble's devaluation.
“An increase in Russian exports because of the ruble devaluation including those groups of goods that are produced in Belarus may cause a big problem for us. A possible threat of a decrease in our exports to Russia is not also excluded,” said Petr Kapitulo, Presidential advisor on economics to The Day's reporter.
Despite all the political laurels that Lukashenka is now reaping, Belarus whose economy is the most integrated in the CIS with the Russian, will be struck most by the Russian crisis.
“Today, this orientation toward Russia looks like a political mistake. Belarus has always calculated that the powerful Russian locomotive would pull it out, but it did not consider that the locomotive could run over a cliff,” The Day was told by a financial analyst. Dealers think that the destiny of the Belarus economy is being determined in Moscow more than in Minsk.






