By Viktor ZAMYATIN,The Day
Three presidents, Leonid Kuchma, Eduard Shevardnadze, and Geidar Aliyev,
have solemnly proclaimed in the Georgian port of Poti the restoration of
the Great Silk Road from Western Europe to Central Asia via Ukraine and
the Caucasus, dispatching the first tanker loaded with oil, and concluded
that the western route of Caspian oil export is in operation. They spoke
about geopolitics and about the broad and deep importance of the symbolic
action itself and of what we may expect in future. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians,
Georgians, and Azeris played tin soldiers at a test area near Tbilisi,
training how to defend the brand-new western oil route.
One can, of course, state that while disputes are going on and consortia
for exporting the still-unextracted "big" Caspian oil are being formed
and broken up, one of the hypothetical ways has already become real. Richard
Morningstar, special advisor to the US Secretary of State, reiterated at
the Poti ceremony that the US supports the continuation of this route as
far as Turkey. Mr. Kuchma said he hoped oil would not bypass Ukraine on
its way to Europe. Ukraine, seemingly pushed finally far to the fringes
in the great game for big oil, has again got a chance to expect something.
This week the presidents of Poland and Lithuania again discussed their
interest in the Ukrainian oil route, which is not yet ready, for the Odesa
oil terminal does not exist as it did not five years ago when all the talk
started; nor has the pipeline to the Polish border been built. Poland and
Lithuania are in fact not ready either to give Ukraine a chance to cash
in on the oil transit, for nobody has yet made the necessary estimates
or clearly identified the markets. What we have are words of support. Perhaps
the Balkan events, also the subject of talks in Poti, will really force
potential Western big-time buyers to mull over the Ukrainian dream.
Only in this case can one speak about new geopolitical fault-lines.
Oil is likely to bring together still closer Baku, Tbilisi, and Kyiv. An
informal company of friends coming from a single shared abode called GUAM
(Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) will become a true force, while
Uzbekistan, which has recently decided to join it, will become its last
but not least member. Moscow will have to somewhat curb its appetites,
and the CIS will be forgotten altogether. Perhaps President Kuchma meant
precisely this when he spoke about a wide and great geopolitical importance
of the Poti meeting. However, these are only long-term possibilities.
In real terms, the western way is in operation, competing with the Russian
one which passes through Chechnya, no matter how hard the Transcaucasian
leaders deny it in their attempts to appease Moscow. In real terms, Ukraine
may simply buy as much Caspian oil as it may pay for.






