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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

OUR CRIPPLED MENTALITY PREDISPOSED TO COMMUNISM can be altered by pessimistic politicians, skeptical scientists, and enthusiastic managers

13 November, 2012 - 00:00

Is there any connection between the number of people who die of natural causes, get killed, divorce, and the election results? The Day has on more than one occasion allocated space for various polls to help the reader form an idea about Ukraine’s social and political situation, and carried articles by experts in sociology and politics. However, political process appear to have a demographic aspect. The following is an interview with Prof. Volodymyr Voitenko, Director of the Genetics and Modeling Mathematics Laboratory at the Medical Academy’s Institute of Gerontology.

Q: Professor Voitenko, you are a physician and your scientific interests focus primarily on medicine, but in the past few years you have written books relating to sociology and political science. Why?

A: It all started with demography. When specialists finally gained access to information about the fertility, morbidity, mortality, and life span of all those builders of the communist paradise I wrote two books analyzing demographic processes, using multivariate mathematical modeling. And then there were the parliamentary and presidential campaigns. Almost 200 years ago Academician Storch wrote: “I consider it an axiom that the number of humans births and deaths undoubtedly correlates with the physical, political, and moral condition of mankind.”

Q: You discovered an interrelation between the political conduct of the populace at the regional level and their demographic situation. This is very interesting, but does this testify to some deeper-going social regularities?

A: The demographic situation and political conduct are connected indirectly. I am sure, however, that death, birth, divorce rates, the number of illegitimate children, crime, and suicide rates in any given society cannot but affect its mentality and, hence, how people behave during elections. My studies of recent years show that there is definite connection between the demographic situation and people’s predisposition to communism. Thus, I was not surprised at the results of the past elections. Take 1989 demographic statistics and compare them to what we have now. Apparently, nothing has changed in terms of “problem” areas. In other words, today’s red part of Ukraine was formed even then, caused by the demographic situation and mentality crippled by the Soviet regime. There is a certain dependence between electoral behavior and indicators of demographic instability such as the divorce and crime rates, low fertility, too many pensioners, etc. And all this is perfectly unbiased information, supplied by computers immune to political affiliations.

Q: What do you think are the principal features of today’s Ukrainian mentality?

A: During the decades of repressive Soviet rule the people acquired certain attributes of social psychology (mentality) which crippled them. Their main characteristics can be categorized as (a) partisan outlook (surrounded by enemies), (b) infantilism (we are children and those in power are our fathers and mothers), (c) a tendency to lumpenization (lowlife, people having and valuing nothing), and (d) criminality (why not steal if everything is supposed to be owned by everybody). This does not mean that we are all backyard guerrillas, immature. or criminals, but unfortunately it means that most of us have something of the above in our mentality. I don’t have to explain why this mentality turns out markedly deformed in the industrial areas, denied ethnic identity, morals, and Russified. President Kuchma collected 44% of his votes in five most demographically unstable regions (centered in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, and the Crimea). Leonid Kravchuk received most of his from demographically stable constituencies.

Q: We are getting closer to the next presidential campaign. What about Oleksandr Moroz’s chances demographically?

A: His electorate is not geographically clearly defined. Generally speaking, there isn’t much chance for him in the Ukrainian east and west. The correlation between the votes cast for SPU and the demographic situation in any given constituency reveals considerable dependence on such factors as divorce and illegitimate birth rates, low fertility, high mortality, and low population growth (a trend to extinction).

Q: Are there any changes here compared to the previous presidential and last parliamentary elections?

A: A detailed analysis is still in the future, but off-handedly I would say no. Let me stress that the demographic peculiarities of any given constituency do not relate to the candidate but to the voters supporting him. Oleksandr Moroz cannot be blamed for people abandoning their children, women having abortions, and rising mortality. On the other hand, every politician must have a clear picture of his own and his rival’s electorate.

Q: How would you like to see the third or optimal President of Ukraine?

A: Softer than General Pinochet, tougher than General de Gaulle, more flexible than General Jaruzelski, as smart as General Aliyev, and as sympathetic as General Shevardnadze.

Q: How come you mention only generals?

A: Because everybody knows them. I think we’ll be able to discuss the candidates in greater detail come September-October.

Q: How about today, just a few words if you please?

A: There is little Leonid Kuchma or Oleksandr Moroz can add to their ratings, because we know both only too well. Among the other candidates Yevhen Marchuk has the greatest potential in terms of building his image for the electorate. However, any potential can be used to the best advantage or left a potentiality.

Q: Could we expect any surprises from Ms. Vitrenko?

A: I don’t think so. If I were her imagemaker (God forbid!), I would recommend (a) continue with her anti-bourgeois hysterics at rallies and meetings, (b) refrain from threatening businessmen with prison on television, rather hint at the possibility of a middle course between progressive socialism and agonizing capitalism, and (c) pay a visit to a beauty parlor on Khreshchatyk and get herself a new hairdo.

Q: You are ironical about progressive socialism, aren’t you?

A: And what would you expect? Take it seriously? In my book (Man at the Turn of the Third Millennium. Metanoia - Ed.) which came off the presses before the parliamentary elections I offer these definitions “Ukrainian Socialist: a castrated Bolshevik” and “Ukrainian Progressive Socialist: a castrated Bolshevik with a prosthesis.” Now let’s not forget that we are discussing not personalities but political trends.

Q: How would you explain the successful performance of populist politicians?

A: Let me tell you something. I read Hitler’s Mein Kampf and I enjoyed every page. What a product! Top quality custom made! I think our populists are playing the same game. Its techniques proved very effective at one time, and precisely when addressed to the lumpen mentality. The populist vehicle’s efficiency is graphically demonstrated by what may be described as a metaphorical example. A team of zoologists once watched a group of monkeys when something very funny happened. Their leader was a cunning old male. One of the younger males got hold of an empty fuel can and started banging it, never stopping, and making a lot of noise. Three days later the pack recognized him as their new leader.

Q: What about our new Parliament?

A: It’s hard to tell at the moment. Whether it becomes a legislative motive force in Ukrainian history or turns into yet another endless hot air session of impotent People’s Deputies will largely depend on the outcome of the presidential campaign. What we see now is a typical scenario being played out, which the parties and those in power will want to use during the next elections. Maybe by the time this interview appears in print Parliament will have elected its leadership. If we see two communo-socialists and a people’s democrat among the three key figures - Speaker and his two Deputies - we can safely assume that there will be some thaw between the President and his inveterate opponents, which may well evolve into some sort of affection or at least a marriage of convenience. If and when this happens we will hear about the left center, but will actually have leftist centralism.

Q: How do you picture Ukraine in the next millennium?

A: A good politician is always pessimistic and analyst skeptical, but every manager (functionary) must be burning with enthusiasm. If we can combine pessimism, skepticism, and enthusiasm, we will overcome.

Q: Overcome who?

A: Ourselves in the first place. Back in 1526, Nicolaus Copernicus (the man’s interest ranged from astronomy to economics) wrote an essay about the reasons behind the decay of powerful countries. He came up with four: high mortality, social discord, exhausted soil, and bad money. Precisely what we have today and I see no actual steps being made by the government to improve the situation. Well, criticizing the powers that be is so banal. What we need is improving them by elections, so we can rally round people we trust to guide us to a happier future.

 

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