On the positive side of trade wars

Pawel KOWAL, Chair of the European Parliament’s Delegation to the EU-Ukraine Parliamentary Cooperation Committee, frequently visits Ukraine. This time he arrived in Kyiv at the invitation of the Major Archbishop of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, Sviatoslav, to take part in celebrating the 1,025th anniversary of the Baptism of Kyivan Rus’. “I was struck to see so many people who have come to attend the service,” he says, sharing his impressions. “There were very many hierarchs there. I think the Ukrainians were sent a powerful signal that the Catholic Church occupies a place of its own among the churches of Ukraine and can play a positive role. In my view, the position of Sviatoslav as primate of Greek Catholic Church is being strengthened. He managed to put up a major landmark in the development of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church. Twenty five years ago the Greek Catholics were totally deprived of the opportunity to celebrate the 1,000th anniversary of the Baptism of Kyivan Rus’ in Kyiv. And now they are not only celebrating this feast in Kyiv, but also opening a cathedral in downtown Kyiv, on the banks of the ‘new Jordan.’ I wish this feast had been celebrated together by the Greek Catholics and followers of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate). But our whole life is ahead of us. What is going on in Europe in terms of religion and what Pope Francis is introducing inspires a hope that they will be celebrating together in 25 year’s time. The tradition of Rus’ baptism in Kyiv is one the most important elements of the Ukrainian tradition and Ukrainian identity as well of that of all Eastern churches in general.”

Mr. Kowal, a trade war broke out the other day between Russia and Ukraine, but Europe keeps silent. Why is Europe not reacting?

“I am also surprised with the position of Europe. In Europe, as well as in Ukraine, this can be put down to August. Even the reaction to what was going on in Georgia in August 2008 was belated. For in Europe, as well as in Ukraine, August is a time of vacations.

“But, speaking seriously, I think nobody can so far say whether it is the beginning or the epicenter of Russia’s reaction to Ukraine’s likely swing to the West. I think that as recently as in May Kremlin analysts did not believe seriously that Ukraine could sign the Association Agreement. But I also see a certain positive signal in the current reaction [of Russia]. It must have come home to Kremlin analysts that Ukraine is really determined to sign this Agreement. But nobody seriously expected Russia to show a response like this to the signing at this period.

“We know the history of Russia’s all trade wars, including one with Moldova, especially after the Orange and Rose Revolutions, we remember [Moldavian President] Voronin’s refusal to sign the ‘Kozak Plan’ [the plan of resolving the Transnistria conflict through federalization of Moldova. – Ed.]. We know that the reaction is always a trade war. This measure has been applied more than once to Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. Suffice it to recall the history of all energy wars.

“The point is now in the reaction of the Ukrainian and European governments. I think there have been some reactions on a diplomatic level. Russia is now playing open cards. She is saying frankly that this is occurring in the light of the possible signing of the Association Agreement. As far as I can see, there is a signal from the German government, which, with due account of the correlation of forces in Europe, will be decisive. And when Germany says ‘yes but on certain conditions,’ the majority will approve the signing of this Agreement. Russia has accepted this, and here is her reaction.”

What can Russia be expected to do next?

“We should now duly appraise what can happen before the signing, to what extent the president and government of Ukraine will manage to keep their nerves in check, and whether they will be able to hold out until the time of signing. As for the future trade wars, I can conclude that when Russia sees that the Agreement has been signed, she will change her tactics and work far more pragmatically than before this. So you must hold out until the Agreement is signed. Meanwhile, we should carefully appraise the current moment of this process.

“The experience of previous trade wars also points out some positive sides. For example, Georgian entrepreneurs found markets in other countries and improved the quality of their products – in principle, they benefited from those trade restrictions. In other words, as always, every cloud has a silver lining. But I am waiting for a serious reaction from the European Union and European institutions.

“As Russia is our strategic partner, we must respond to the use of such an instrument as trade ban. We view this instrument as part of the arsenal of a non-peaceful development of contacts between countries in general and between strategic partners, such as the European Union and Russia, in particular. If a country wishes to sign an association agreement with the EU and receives such a harsh response from Russia, it provides ample grounds for this country and European institutions to show an equally harsh reaction. This must not be viewed as something neutral. Whoever analyzes what is going on around must view this as a ‘military step’ and duly react to this.”

How should the EU react to this and does it have any leverage on Russia?

“We should ask our strategic partner Russia why she opposes a country signing an association agreement with us.

“As for leverage, we have some. We should not forget that what Russia always values very much is reputation. In most cases we first think about economic levers but forget that we have such a powerful instrument as Russia’s reputation. Russia wants to have the reputation of a country that knows how to develop peaceful relations with other countries. If we keep on saying that there is something wrong with Russia and that she forbids her neighbors to freely choose the vector of geopolitical development, this will bring about an altogether different situation in diplomacy. And it will be the question of international, not only domestic, politics, which is very bad.”

US President Barack Obama seems to have understood this at last and canceled a summit with President Vladimir Putin.

“Yes, but he understood this too late. I think the European Union should understand quicker than Obama that we should develop and seek opportunities for new cooperation with Russia but we must not shut our eyes to the overtly unfriendly steps that Russia is taking against, for example, Ukraine.”

InoSMI has recently published an interview with political scientist Andrzej Nowak titled ‘Russia is the World’s Most Dangerous Country’…

“It is not up to me as a politician to assess which country is the most dangerous. I expected Russia to show a harsh reaction when the Kremlin became really aware that Ukraine is leaning to the West. I can see a positive side in this. Firstly, Moscow is aware of Ukraine seriously intending to sign the [Association] Agreement. Secondly, any trade war with Russia always reminds entrepreneurs in our part of the world that they should try to diversify markets. And this kind of war is always an opportunity to do so because people end up in situation when there in no other option.”