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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

Primakov Appoints His Successor

13 November, 2012 - 00:00

One of the first personnel decisions by Russia’s new Premier Yevgeny Primakov was the appointment of a new Foreign Minister. His successor is Igor Ivanov, his closest comrade-in-arms and former First Deputy. 53 year-old Ivanov is a career diplomat. The Moscow Pedagogical Institute of Foreign Languages alumnus worked for several years at the USSR Academy’s Institute of World Economy and International Relations where Primakov was then Deputy Director. Ivanov’s first diplomatic assignment was to Spain, where he worked many years, eventually becoming ambassador. Andrei Kozyrev then made him his First Deputy, a position Ivanov retained under Primakov. It is obvious that the newly appointed Prime Minister will run foreign policy himself, and the Ministry will only implement his ideas. There is now no one to prevent Primakov from doing so, especially since the alternate center of political decision-making identified with Sergei Yastrzhembski, recently dismissed Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, is gone.

Incidentally

Ukraine reacted to Ivanov’s appointment as Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs when Borys Tarasiuk sent him a congratulatory telegram immediately after the appointment.

Unofficially at the Ukrainian MFA Ivanov is characterized as an extremely rigid man who stubbornly keeps to his chosen path and frequently avoids interaction with the public. His situation in office is unlikely to be too dependent on the momentary position of political forces. Ukrainian diplomats feel fortunate that his interests do not include Ukraine. The most likely coordinator of Russia’s policy toward Ukraine is Deputy Minister Boris Pastukhov, whose opinions and business style are well-known in Kyiv.

Comment

Academician Volodymyr Semynozhenko, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Science and Education:

If we are right to assume that the Yeltsin era is coming to an end, this tendency has materialized in Primakov. They bet not on a person supported by a political party, interest group, or so-called oligarchs, but on a pragmatic intellectual, on a reputable, professional politician with a strategic view based on his academic background. A man was chosen who is well-known on the political scene.

What consequences will this appointment have for Russian policy? First, the political regime has been transformed. As a result, we can speak of a Premier-governmental republic that has de facto been formed, as well as a considerable decline in presidential power.

Secondly, we can see the actual decay of the so-called party of power: Chernomyrdin’s Our Home Russia has become just another faction.

Finally, Primakov’s promotion indicates the accession of a new and still little-known echelon of the postcommunist pragmatic and intellectual nomenklatura, recruited from the academic environment and closely connected with the old political and academic establishments. Characteristic of this elite stratum are its specific political statistics and strategic approach to current politics. While in charge of Russia’s Intelligence Service and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Primakov was aided with a deep analytical study of all the important issues from a broad geoeconomic and geopolitical standpoint. He was responsible for preparing a number of analytical reports for the Russian President and government. Primakov’s analytical service is one of the best in Russia.

What changes can we expect in the style of the Russo-Ukrainian relationship? Russia’s policy is likely to be a pragmatic one based on national interests. Primakov is known as an adherent of polycentrism in the world and unicentrism in the CIS. Thus, Russia will view Ukrainian-Russian relations in terms of CIS integration and opposing NATO. We can also expect stronger pressure by Russian energy monopolies on the Ukrainian energy and debt markets.

If Primakov’s premiership is successful, the growth of his political influence will affect the political situation in Ukraine. We cannot exclude the possibility of it causing increased demand in Ukraine for harsh and pragmatic politicians of the new type, who would approach domestic policy issues from the standpoint of the larger context of geopolitical changes rather than from a monetary-protectionist position.

 

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