It seems that Ukraine’s government and business circles are taking the country’s security seriously. This was confirmed by the interest of Raisa Bohatyriova, the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine secretary and various Ukrainian businessmen to the presentation by Stephan De Spiegeleire, senior research officer of the Hague Center of Strategic Studies (HCSS). He was invited to Kyiv by the World Policy Institute.
It is worth mentioning that De Spiegeleire, a former sovietologist, is the “father” of a new National Security Strategy of the Netherlands (2007). He told The Day that he never lost interest in this region. “We knew that Ukraine faces the same problems as we did. You have to know how to invest money, what is important or dangerous. Usually, risk assessment analyses are the result of a struggle between political parties or agencies. In addition, there is a struggle between pressure groups,” the expert said.
De Spiegeleire noted that the armed forces and the entire security apparatus in Ukraine were huge, but that the question of how effective they are remained. He also mentioned that it is necessary to objectively assess security matters, and that Ukraine has such a project, funded by the Vidrodzhennia institute.
By the way, recently De Spiegeleire presented the “Future Nature of Conflict” research project in the World Policy Institute. It is based on a new prediction method called Metaphore, which is developed by the Hague Center of Strategic Studies in close collaboration with the abovementioned Ukrainian institute. The main point of the methodology is collecting as much prognostic data as possible on an issue and special coding, which allows systematizing the collected information. According to the developer, such researches allow the authorities, who make decisions, to receive a consolidated review of the opinions of experts in charge of prognostication and comparing differences in predictions in different regions.
De Spiegeleire told The Day that a national risk review is regularly prepared in the Netherlands. In it they take two aspects into consideration: prevention and warning. “We realized we had to know what was happening and have a chance to prevent it,” the expert emphasized. Furthermore, he believes that the resilience concept, which is linked to state security, appeared recently.
“We developed a methodology in the Netherlands, which really helps in preparing risk analyses more objectively. We also collect different scenarios from different agencies. Then the Cabinet of Ministers receives the assessment of different parameters from all the agencies. When we made the analysis for the first time, we saw that the pandemic threat was more important than the terrorism threat. It was a surprise, as we had just established a counter-terrorism institution and invested a lot into it,” De Spiegeleire explained.
He also noted that priority reassessment of investments into security is taking place around the world, affecting risk analysis. In the expert’s opinion, investments in defence and armed forces from the Balkans to Afghanistan are not effective, perhaps even counterproductive.
De Spiegeleire told The Day that Ukraine is interested in the Dutch methodology, especially Bohatyriova, as well as some Ukrainian entrepreneurs and oligarchs.
“We discussed a project of national risk assessment with Mrs. Bohatyriova. We saw that the NSDCU secretary is genuinely interested in this matter. And we are also interested in the project being useful for Ukraine. The country would assign money against real threats using this depoliticized methodology. Another important thing is that it hardly costs anything. It is quite a simple but systematized methodology, which helps the country to define the security priorities more wisely. If we help Ukraine become more resilient, the investment feedback will be much better,” De Spiegeleire noted.
In his opinion, we should first create a database in Ukraine and only then carry out the analysis. In order to do this, first of all, we are to find out which actions took place and what their consequences were. In other words, it is necessary to have an objective assessment of everything which was done in order to assign funds for useful things, thus reducing expenses. And only after that should an empirical analysis of Ukrainian foreign policy vectors be carried out.
The Dutch expert believes that a balance between the eastern and western vectors of Ukraine’s policy should be reached not only in politics or security but also in the economic and, probably, household sphere. It is good to know how many Ukrainians travel east or west, whether they download Russian or English music. The real analysis of foreign policy, in De Spiegeleire’s mind, is not based on talk but rather identifying the real policy vectors.
“And, finally, we should talk about Ukraine’s rating. It seems that the people underestimate how low Ukraine’s rating abroad really is. For the most part, only bad news is published about Ukraine. That is why it would be interesting to see the tendencies. The modern technologies allow watching the changes in ratings every week. All five above-mentioned projects are connected. It would be good if in the end of next year a new assessment would be based on such a transparent methodology,” the Dutch expert summed up.






