Second Front

After the terrorist act in Buinaksk and the infiltration of Muslim fundamentalists into Novolaksky district of Dagestan, Russia more and more speaks about a second front in the Dagestan war and does not hide that it also expects the opening of third and fourth fronts. As if there had not been a triumphant journey of Premier Vladimir Putin to Dagestan, when he announced a complete victory over the fundamentalists. Even then some observers hinted gently that there was no victory at all: there could only be a question of reconnaissance or a regrouping of forces. But they went unheeded, as always. As always, because the Russian political elite has for many years been living and forcing all of society to live in what seems to be a surreal atmosphere. At first they shut their eyes to the collapse of the Soviet Union, then to the Chechnya problem. When they opened their eyes, a senseless war began, owing to which Grozny got an opportunity to become a dominant force in the Caucasian region. Also as always, because Moscow has stubbornly ignored its actual hard-won independence. This is why there is no genuine border between Chechnya and Dagestan, while the propaganda of Chechnya field commanders has been victoriously marching for several years across Dagestan without any Internet (Internet in mountain dwellings?). When they notice at last the Dagestan problem, they decided to report victories — just to be on the safe side.

Now the State Council of Dagestan has ordered total mobilization, in other words, to hand out weapons. What this will mean for a multiethnic state in the nearest future, only Allah knows. There is no doubt, however, that the rifle, now hanging in the theater of war against the Islamic rebels, is sure to fire during the next parliamentary elections in Dagestan or a new interethnic conflict, and there have been plenty in Dagestan of late.

In general, Russian policy in the Caucasus somehow looks like the actions of a fire brigade. However, precisely because politics is the art of foreseeing rather than reacting to what has happened, this approach always makes me turn to Ray Bradbury: the hero of his Fahrenheit 451 recalls that firemen used to put out fires, not start them.