“Sharp turn” in the Chamber of Representatives,

The midterm elections held recently in the US produced no surprises. As expected, the Americans’ dissatisfaction with the policy of the current administration resulted in a victory for the Republicans, who got 234 seats in the Chamber of Representatives (218 seats represent a majority), while the Democrats got 181 seats. The Republicans still lack a few seats to subjugate the Senate. The opposition managed to “win over” six senatorial seats of the Democrats — from the states of North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Illinois. Thus, the Republican Party now has 47 seats in the Senate, and the Democratic Party has 51 seats. The Republicans didn’t manage to take away the majority from the Democratic party in the Senate, but they got the senator seat from the state of Illinois, which was previously held by the current president of the US.

In the opinion of observers, the current elections were the most radical “overturn” in the Chamber of Representatives for more than 60 years — since 1948.

During the election campaign the Republicans focused on economic mistakes of the current administration, accusing Obama’s party of “squandering the budget.”

Political experts partly connect the drop in popularity of the Democrats with the steep expectations regarding the quick recovery from the recession and solving social problems, and also because Obama didn’t manage to fully realize his election program.

Before the elections, the US Supreme Court adopted a resolution according to which corporations are allowed to sponsor any party without restrictions. At this, parties are not obliged to divulge either the sponsor’s name or the sum of money allotted.

As a result of this resolution, these elections were called the most expensive in the American history. According to some, the campaign cost over 3.5 billion dollars.

Many political experts are unanimous that the minor lead of the Democrats in the Senate will leave wiggle room for Obama, but will also make him dedicate more time and strength to dialog with the opposition.

The fate of the documents suspended by the previous composition of the Congress remains blurry, in particular, the agreement with Russia on the reduction of strategic offensive weapons. If other documents are also not ratified in the so-called lame-duck session (the interval between the elections and the beginning of the work of the new Congress composition), considering them can be shelved as non-priority.

As the press service of the White House informed, after announcing the preliminary results of the elections, the US president called the Speaker of the Chamber of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, the leader of the Republicans in the chamber John Boehner, the leader of the Democrats in the chamber Steny Hoyer, and also Senator Mitch McConnell who heads the Republican minority.

“In the conversation with Boehner and McConnell the president said he was looking forward to working with them, and wished the Republicans to find common ground, move the country forward and get things done for the American people,” states the report of the White House press service.

COMMENTARY

What changes should be expected in the US foreign policy due to the fact that the Republican Party got the majority in the Chamber of Representatives with a president-democrat? How can this influence the bilateral relations of Washington with Kyiv and Moscow? What is the prospect of the ratification of the new START Treaty (the nuclear weapons reduction treaty) by the new Senate, where the Democrats lost their absolute majority?

Yevhen KAMINSKY, professor, head of the Department of Transatlantic Studies at the Institute for World Economy and International Relations, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine:

“First, for me it is very important that, certainly, the US policy on the post-Soviet territory can change. Second, American-Russian relations can worsen if Russia continues considering the planned modernization only within the framework of economy and technologies, purchasing modern technologies in the West, and will refuse from carrying out political reforms. And third, obviously, it is no less important that through the majority of the Republicans in the Congress there will be efforts to resume, normalize relations of real partnership with the giants of the European Union: above all with France and Germany.

“Ukraine should expect that the US will start noticing violations of human rights and freedoms, the absence of real democratic changes, and even turning away from democracy, which is taking place in Ukraine. I think that the situation with the Democrats, when one could do anything and nobody noticed it in the United States, will not persist. But one shouldn’t forget that this will happen when the new Congress starts working. This will take place not today or tomorrow, but in January next year. And the last thing ensuing from Obama’s address to the leader of the Republicans in the Chamber of Representatives John Boehner, where the American president asked to meet in order to find a common ground for the way out of the situation in the country. I think in this sense we can say that there will be something new. But the compromise is reached when both sides make concessions, that is why we should wait for final negotiations between Obama and the leader of the Republican Party.

“Regarding the ratification of the new START Treaty. It seems to me it will be revised and supplemented, since the Republicans clearly stated in the course of the election campaign that this agreement gives clear advantages to Russia. That is why I do not think it will be ratified in its current form. If Russia undertakes this, then another round of revisions will take place. I do not think that if the Russian party wishes to get support for its modernization plans it will give a flat refusal from revising the treaty. In my opinion, not at once but in some time they will agree and find a compromise to start the negotiations again. I give a 20-percent chance at most that this agreement will be ratified in its current form.

“Generally, regarding the strategy of Obama’s administration, for a year and a half, the global leader endured hard times.”