Stepping up erosion

On March 16, Moldova elected Nicolae Timofti, a 63-year-old lawyer, as president. Beginning in 2009, the Moldovan parliament had been unable to elect the head of state because of the destructive position of the Communist Party who boycotted the voting procedure. This election is proof of the ruling alliance’s effective European stand. Early this week Chisinau launched the first round of Moldova-EU FTA talks. Previously the Belarusian Prime Minister, Vladimir Filat, and the European Commissioner for Trade, Karel de Gucht, stated that the FTA between the EU and Belarus couldn’t be signed before September 2013.

The newly elected head of state is all out for neutrality, withdrawal of foreign troops, and for the Dniester peacekeeping mission (currently supervised by Russia) to be replaced by a mission made up of civilians with international mandate. Addressing parliament, Nicolae Timofti said he wanted a peaceful, 5+2-formula roundtable solution to the Transnistria problem (5+2 means Russia and Ukraine as guarantors; OSCE as a go-between, and EU and US as observers).

Timofti stressed that the problem could be solved in strict accordance with the constitution that provides for a unitary state, its territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence.

Does the election of this president mean that Moldova is now surely headed for Europe, despite whatever the communists may endeavor? Will the ruling coalition make the FTA deal before the 2015 election campaign? More on this in the following interview with Oazu NANTOI, program director, Institute of Social Policy (Chisinau).

“Moldova has apparently failed to avoid communist impact, considering that its communist party has a solid and stable electorate. Also, many say that there will be a number of defectors after the presidential election. Moldova’s communists have come up against a brick wall, insisting that the current parliament is illegitimate, even though everyone, particularly President Yanukovych, welcomed the election of Nicolae Timofti. Moldova’s communists keep saying this head of state is unlawful and that they won’t return to parliament.

“This social confrontation leaves a number of people worried, considering that Moldova is a markedly decentralized country, with all funds remaining under the central government’s control, so local authorities prefer to keep a low profile. I can say that the 64 city mayors elected in 2011, slated by the Liberal Democratic Party, are all ex-communists. Most likely, this erosion process will gain momentum, but the communists will most likely attack any constitutional amendments in parliament. Using a referendum to make such constitutional amendments is a joke. Today’s alignment of political forces in the Moldovan Parliament makes this idea impractical… I think that the next election campaign will take place using the same constitution, with another four-year presidency. One can only hope that afterward the constitution will be amended and that the election outcome will be more predictable.

“Two-thirds of votes in parliament suffice to make amendments to the constitution. If and when the communist faction falls apart, with one half siding with the Alliance, then such amendments will become theoretically possible. If the bulk of this faction remains, if there are less defectors, they will most likely block such amendments. Moldovan communists’ position is weaker now than before.”

What has to be done to help the European Integration Alliance in the forthcoming election campaign, to make this integration trend irreversible?

“Before March 16, before crossing the Rubicon and electing our president, there were gruesome expectations. Most experts believed that the communists would get consolidated by retaining their electorate, along with a weaker public support of the Alliance. I’m not sure that the Alliance stands a good chance in Moldovan society, but there is no threat of early parliamentary elections. In other words, the Alliance has two years to try to improve its public image. There is also the possibility of change within the Alliance, considering the defectors.

“In terms of European integration, Moldova would benefit from a liberalized visa regime. I don’t know about Ukraine, but quite a few Moldovans are abroad and they feel offended by the existing visa procedures. This is a big problem. If and when the Alliance succeeds in liberalizing these procedures, this will be a trump card for a certain segment of society, excluding pensioners.

“The Association and FTA agreements must be signed, of course, although neither seems feasible. On March 3, a meeting of the Moldovan and Romanian cabinets adopted a resolution to the effect that the Ungheni-Iasi gas pipeline would be built during the year as a trump card in the game with Russia’s Gazprom. There are problems that haven’t been resolved over the past 20 years. I can only hope that the Alliance will have something to offer the electorate to correct its current shaky position.”

Will it be possible to settle the Transnistria conflict after the presidential election?

“I’m hard put to answer your question, considering that Yevgeny Shevchuk struggled hard not to bring the Tiraspol key to Chisinau. Even if he turns out to be a more transparent politician than Igor Smirnov, neither side is likely to succeed in establishing free contact between the communal members, or in implementing any joint projects. I can see no solution to the [Transnistria] problem, what with the constitution and other issues…”

Some say that Moldova, having elected its president, will soon join Romania. What do you think?

“This is a crazy idea, perhaps one worked out by political agents provocateurs. How would this merger be done and by whom? If and when Moldova joins Romania, it will be another administrative district, considering that it now has 100 MPs and 17 ministers. Which of these will be willing to surrender his well-paid position? Moldova also has its own customs authorities.”