Tamara GUZENKOVA: “The new Ukrainian foreign minister encountered a completely tolerant attitude in Moscow”
What is the Kremlin’s assessment of the first visit to Russia of Ukraine’s new Minister of Foreign Affairs Arsenii Yatseniuk? What does Moscow think about the initiatives that the Ukrainian minister raised during the negotiations? Russian historian Tamara GUZENKOVA, a leading expert at the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies (RISD) answers these and other questions in her interview with The Day . It should be noted that the Putin administration welcomes many of the recommendations proposed by RISS.
“In the current situation the visit to Russia of Ukraine’s foreign minister Arsenii Yatseniuk has special significance. First of all, it took place at the peak of the acute political crisis that emerged between the president and parliament. Thus, the minister was the conscious or involuntary translator of certain signals being conveyed by the conflicting sides.
“It is not difficult to read these signals. First of all, the goal of this visit was to demonstrate that however deep the internal political controversies may be in Ukraine, they are not deep enough to interrupt the external political dialogue, especially with strategically important countries. But the head of Ukraine’s foreign ministry seemed to overdo it when he said that ‘nothing abnormal is going on in Ukraine, and the situation in Kyiv is absolutely normal.’
“Second, the minister, who is young in both the chronological and political sense, did his best to fill in the vacuum that had opened up as a result of the cancellation of President Viktor Yushchenko’s two visits to Moscow. The list of issues raised by Yatseniuk also attests to his courage. The matters that were discussed included the Great Treaty, the Single Economic Space (SES), the Black Sea Fleet, the Ukraine-Russia Plan of Activities, and energy issues. This is a broad spectrum of questions that are important to both sides.
“It is also noteworthy that the Ukrainian foreign minister tried to formulate the topics without confrontation. This particularly concerns the talks on the stationing of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. However, even his first words give grounds for thinking that promoting the idea of renewing “strategic cooperation” will be fraught with serious difficulties. In particular, his statement about the necessity of also changing the packet approach to the SES with respect to its economic component indicates that Ukraine (or just its foreign ministry?) is not happy with the current SES format.
“Yatseniuk’s statements about exceptional interest in the economic component and refusal to take part in any supra-national bodies can hardly be interpreted as a new approach to bilateral cooperation. Rather, this is the same old song.
“The proposal to renew the basic treaty of 1997 is also a difficult topic, not to say beyond dispute. The Ukrainian side either understands absolutely clearly the whats, hows, and wherefores of its intention to change the treaty, or this idea is a test run aimed at probing its partner’s reaction. I think that before trying forcibly to renew the ratified document it would not hurt to analyze what was achieved, for example, within the framework of the 1997-2007 Economic Cooperation Program. Another question is whether it is worthwhile for Ukraine, which is experiencing a difficult period of political reform and constitutional crisis, to get involved in the process of also rewriting its foreign policy agreements.
“Judging by official statements, the new Ukrainian foreign minister encountered a completely tolerant attitude in Moscow. But the meeting date for the two presidents was not discussed. Apparently, Moscow does not completely agree with the declarations of Ukraine’s foreign ministry representatives about the ‘absolutely normal situation in Kyiv.’ For an effective meeting to take place between the heads of state a balanced political situation is nevertheless necessary. And the sooner it is achieved, the more constructive the dialogue between our two states will be.”
