By Serhiy ZGURETS, The Day
Ukraine could find itself caught between two fires - pressure from both
the US and Russia which have resumed dispute over the ABM Treaty. However,
the Ukrainian diplomats have so far been saying that the real situation
is not as critical as it may seem to Moscow.
The week before last US President Bill Clinton sent his Russian colleague
a letter informing him that his country plans to build and test a limited
ABM system, and asked him not to worry, that is, not to consider this a
threat to the strategic balance between the America and Russia. However,
Russia's General Staff regarded such statements as an arm-twisting tactic,
rather than an invitation to dialogue.
In order to understand the subject matter under dispute, recall that
in 1972 the US and USSR concluded an Antiballistic Missile Treaty, which
after the breakup of the USSR was joined by Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan,
and became multilateral. The treaty limited the possibilities of the two
superpowers to unrestrictedly develop antimissile systems capable of shooting
down ICBMs. In the US and Russia, the strategic missile umbrella is currently
unfolded over only one specific region. The rest of their territories remained
unprotected from the ballistic missiles of a potential attacker. It was
expected that none of the parties would decide to unleash a nuclear conflict
first - taking into account the consequences of the nuclear strike in retaliation,
and the limited possibilities of defense.
However, the ABM Treaty does not ban its participants from developing
less powerful defense systems for their territories, designed to combat
Short and Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles. This is precisely what
Washington is now doing. But according to Moscow, America is balancing
on the brink of violating the treaty, since due to technological progress,
the antimissile defense systems which the US is beginning to develop will,
in fact, also be able to cope with ICBMs.
Kyiv is rather quiet about Washington's plans. "If US actions do not
exceed the limits of the ABM Treaty, we have no reason to worry about the
creation of national ABM systems in the US," said Oleksiy Rybak, the Head
of the Foreign Ministry Department for Armament and Disarmament Control.
"If they exceed the limits of the Treaty, we will be concerned, gradually
concerned." However, in reality there is nothing left for Ukraine to do
but wait, for de facto Kyiv does not have the leverage to have any effect
on this battle of the Titans.






