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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

WHAT CADRES DECIDE... Russia’s new leadership is regrouping forces

13 November, 2012 - 00:00
AP photo: The center of gravity in Moscow seems to have shifted from Yeltsin to Primakov. Kuchma felt this first

The final ministers in Yevgeny Primakov’s government are being appointed. There will be no mistakes, the Premier promises. Meanwhile, the question is still open on what the government’s program to overcome the economic crisis will look like.

CHERNOMYRDIN PEOPLE ON THE MARCH

It seems that some observers were hasty in linking Viktor Chernomyrdin’s failure to be approved as Premier with that of Chernomyrdinism. Indeed, Primakov does not have people of his own, at least in the economic sphere. It would be strange if the newly appointed Prime Minister would have invited his old friends from the cohort of Gorbachev era savants. It would be no less strange if during an economic crisis real Communists would appear in the government. Apparently, Yuri Masliukov, newly appointed First Vice Minister and formerly Head of Soviet Gosplan is not as much a Communist as a symbol of the Communist presence. He, just like Primakov, Yeltsin, and Chernomyrdin, has old nomenklatura roots. Hence, it was not mere coincidence that he in due time was invited to join Sergei Kirienko’s quite reformist government. However, there are simply few such experienced people from nomenklatura able to understand and accept the rules of the game common the neo-nomenklatura environs. Primakov tried to counterbalance his government with adherents of Yabloko leader Grigory Yavlinsky. At the first sight it looks like a quite logical move given that it was Yavlinsky who had proposed Primakov to head the government and promised to help him. However, as it turned out, that help does not include participation by Yavlinsky or other deputies from Yabloko in Primakov’s Cabinet. To invite adherents of the Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov to join the government means casting stones at the Presidential milieu at the very outset. And then Chernomyrdin’s camp seems to be the only remaining one which Primakov can call upon to help him complete his government. The President’s edicts appointing two new Vice Premiers, Aleksandr Shokhin and Vladimir Bulgakov, would have to remind State Duma deputies that these top Our Home Russia representatives or just close Chernomyrdin comrades-in-arms would have jointed the Government even if the Premier rejected by the Duma forms it. Masliukov speaks of the possibility that Andrei Vavilov, an advisor to Gasprom CEO Rem Viakhirev, be appointed new Finance Minister. However, it would be to the point to recall the fact that while forming his government Chernomyrdin himself did not entrust his party comrades to work out a program overcome the crisis, giving that job to Deputy Premier Boris Fedorov instead. Now the latter is about to leave the Cabinet. Ministers invited to the White House by Sergei Kirienko as well as those whom the young Premier inherited from Chernomyrdin are also likely to lose their portfolios. The absolutely new team is first of all concerned about survival. Because today their main task is to help Our Home Russia preserve itself as a party of power even without Chernomyrdin being Premier, and offer Chernomyrdin another honorable post in the Duma where two positions now are vacant: First Deputy Speaker and leader of the Our Home Russia faction. However, Chernomyrdin’s team – especially given that Chernomyrdin is out and Primakov is present – is unlikely to be able to overcome the crisis, to work out an effective plan, and to reach an agreement with international financial institutions.

YOUNG REFORMERS ON THE MARCH

While Yevgeny Primakov is inviting birds from Chernomyrdin’s nest to join his government, Valentin Yumashev, Head of the Presidential Administration, is doing something absolutely different having invited retired people to the Kremlin. Yumashev’s situation can be easily compared to that of Primakov. The Head of the Administration has gotten rid of his main rivals in the struggle to influence Yeltsin: Press Secretary Sergei Yastrzembsky and Security Council Secretary Andrei Kokoshin. However, after that he had to look for candidates to fill the openings. And then an obvious thing became clear: Yumashev had never had and could never have any team of his own. While he managed to put his friend Dmitry Yakushkin in the post of Press Secretary, problems arose after the appointment of a Security Council Secretary, Nikolai Bardiuzha, who is most likely to orient himself to the Premier, who is popular in enforcement structures, than to the Head of the Administration. Hence, Yumashev had to keep in the Kremlin Sergei Prikhodko, a Yastrzhembsky man, at the position of the Head of the Foreign Department, and to invite from the White House retired Vice Premier Oleg Sysuyev and former Kirienko Secretariat Chief Dzhakhan Polieva to posts as his deputies. Thus, a team unlikely to favor the government is being formed already in the Kremlin: Yumashev himself, Yeltsin’s daughter Tatiana Diachenko, and Boris Berezovsky (when he gets back) will forget soon about Chernomyrdin’s defeat and will consider the Cabinet (even Chernomyrdin people in it) as a transitional one on the way to embodying the principle of inheriting power. Meanwhile, former Kirienko employees are not pleased with the fact that they had been deprived of the chance to finish their work and replaced with people who have little in common with them.

PARLIAMENT MEMBERS ON THE MARCH

The position of legislators is hardly likely to be determined as yet. This applies to the both chambers of the Federal Assembly. The governors treated Chernomyrdin without any special respect. However, he was predictable and clear for them. At least, he was not an adversary. Primakov placed the threat of Russia’s disintegration first, even above the economic crisis. He has no experience in working with the regional elites now striving for independence as never ever before. It is not difficult to draw the relevant conclusions here. Members of the Lower Chamber have their own problems. The Left enthusiastically supported Primakov’s candidacy, but they are unlikely to want to share responsibility for the current economic situation with his Cabinet. One leading Communist confessed that the Communists do not know what to do: whether to lose now the chance to grab influential positions or to do it now and to lose votes later on. It seems like the votes will be the main thing in the relationship between the Cabinet and Parliament. Just to look polite the Left will wait a few weeks but no longer. Meanwhile, it obvious that in order to achieve real changes Primakov’s government like Kirienko’s will need parliamentary support and the law substantially changed. When the government becomes convinced they do not have and will not get it, it will have to confront the Duma. Incidentally, it is still unclear how Viktor Chernomyrdin’s appearance will influence the Duma leadership’s mood.

However, it is obvious that the parliamentarians are unlikely to change their attitude to Boris Yeltsin. And Primakov in the Premier’s seat will only strengthen deputies’ desire to terminate Boris Yeltsin’s tenure ahead of schedule and hold a new presidential election before 2000. Still, further development of the economic crisis will remain the main factor here, and this development is unlikely to depend today on portfolio maneuvers.

 

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