What knowledge does one need to win?

It was not clear yesterday afternoon whether the summit of the “Normandy Four” – President Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine, President Francois Hollande of France, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, and President Vladimir Putin of Russia – would take place in Minsk, as it was announced last weekend. It will be recalled that the goal of this summit is to find ways to settle the Donbas crisis provoked by Russia’s aggression.

Shortly before this, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius told France Inter Radio that the “Normandy Four” meeting was quite probable. “There are a number of problems which remain to be resolved, but it is very likely to go ahead. It is really a last-chance negotiation,” he said.

At 12 sharp, Kyiv time, the media quoted the Russian head of state’s spokesman as saying that President Putin was going to visit Minsk to take part in the “Normandy format” negotiations. It is quite possible that what influenced Putin’s decision were the latest statement of US President Obama at a Washington press conference with Merkel, in which he did not rule out supplying weapons to Ukraine if the Minsk summit fails, and calls from his European counterparts not to miss the last chance to achieve peace.

COMMENTARY

Edward LUCAS, senior vice-president at CEPA and author of the New Cold War: 

“The West is not a monolith. Even in countries with a weak security culture (like Austria) there are people who understand what is happening, and in countries with a strong security culture (like Estonia) there are people who just want to appease Russia and get on with making money. The trend is mostly in the right direction. Many people now understand that Russia is a problem. But they do not grasp the extent of the problem – most of all they do not realize that Russia is winning. They still think that the low oil price and economic sanctions will constrain Putin. They don’t realize that he is not motivated by Western goals such as making Russia an economic success.

“This won’t change until people in the West are a lot more scared. I fear that this won’t come until we have a really dangerous confrontation with Russia. And even then I am not sure we will draw the right conclusions. There is a large camp in the West that thinks that the whole idea of expanding NATO and the EU was wrong, and the current crisis proves it.

“What can Ukraine do? It’s very difficult. You have a triple crisis: 1) financial-economic 2) political-constitutional 3) geopolitical-security. They all intersect. Don’t give up. Reform public services. Strengthen civil society. Promote tolerance and openness. Increase transparency. Fight corruption by a mixture of legal and social pressure. You can’t beat Putinism by becoming putinist yourself.”