Last week, the Ukrainian President participated in an international conference in Baku, which dealt with restoration of the historic Great Silk Road from Europe through the Caucasus to Central Asia and farther to the East.
In fact, it is no secret to anyone that today the real issue is creating a new Great Oil Road to export of energy resources from the Caspian Sea and other local deposits to the European consumer. It is no secret either that Ukraine is now competing not so much with Turkey for transit of large volumes of Caspian oil, but rather with Romania for the right to export oil through its territory.
Nobody acknowledged openly that Ukraine’s chances are improving for two reasons: first, the situation in Russia renders questionable the existence of the oil corridor to Novorossiysk; and secondly, Ukraine is now more prepared to transport Caspian oil than is Romania. A total of $1.5 million has been allocated for a feasibility study of the unfinished Odesa oil terminal, the Odesa-Brody oil pipeline is half completed, the Ukrainian route enjoys support in Europe (Poland is lobbying for it actively, for example, and reproaches Kyiv for delaying construction), and the project is slated for presentation in Brussels. Ukraine has already spent $120 million on building the Odesa-Brody pipeline and the oil terminal near Odesa. Ankara’s acknowledgment — at least officially — that the Ukrainian route does not competing with the Turkish one makes Ukraine’s chances even better. In fact, Ukraine’s success depends now mostly on Ukraine itself, and President Kuchma just needs to convince potential partners that the situation in the country is under control.
The Great Oil Road can take Ukraine much farther than may first seem, for its creation will automatically give Ukraine, Poland, and Romania a chance to find Caucasian or Asian alternatives to the lost opportunities in Russia, especially since Moscow will not be able to control this potential oil traffic. It would also considerably improve both Ukraine’s economic and political image far beyond the CIS boundaries, as well as facilitate a reassessment of the CIS itself, provided, however, that state interests outweigh those interests of Russian-oriented political groups in Ukraine.
Whatever the name, the Great Silk or the Great Oil Road will remain a mere project until it outlines the clearly defined interests of each party involved, both at the state and private business levels. To date, Ukraine’s success is measured only by an invitation to an EU-organized conference, in which EU countries themselves did not participate. Ukrainian diplomats, however, are claiming that much more is being done than said. We’ll see.






