Russia will try to assist Ukraine with its growing
domestic debts that sooner or later will have to be paid off with money or with political compromises. It also stipulates that Russia will exploit Ukrainian plants, atomic power stations, etc. The Ukrainian Parliament will, of course, have to be sidelined, for this organ which cannot ignore the Ukrainian Constitution and legislation and which will sooner or later have to consider the documents signed by President Kuchma before approving them.
The Russian President's suggestion that the best recipe for keeping Russo-Ukrainian relations on course is to keep the presidents might be considered a symptom of the onset of a relapse, especially after his announcements on World War III or a little earlier on unilateral army reductions. However, his suggestion to keep the presidents is much different from other two. It came largely from the sober-minded Russian political establishment and was addressed to the healthy skepticism of Russia's partners, and, in the case of President Kuchma, from wholly other motives.
No one, either in Ukraine or abroad, would doubt that Yeltsin's announcement reflects not only his personal sympathy but also the interest of all Russian political circles to have Leonid Kuchma in Kyiv, because he is the weakest partner possible. The look on Yeltsin's face and the way he spoke about the Ukrainian people having the right of free choice supported the fact, which does not yet seem to be clear to everyone, that having considered all the candidates for Ukrainian Presidents, Russia does not see a man, who would accept Russia's big brother role, like Kuchma has done the last four years and still does.
The President of Ukraine goes to Russia to sign a new strategy agreement on long-term economic cooperation, even though the Main Grand Treaty, stipulating sovereignty and territorial inviolability has not yet been ratified by the parliament of this "friendly" country. Moreover, Kuchma's partner in secret negotiations suddenly decides to release the news of a strategic military agreement between Ukraine and Russia, ready for signing in the immediate future. Yeltsin comments on the announcement, saying that Russia should consider what help it will be able to grant to Ukraine in case of an emergency situation. (The comments was cut from the televised version of his interview on the "Seven Days" program).
I wonder if it even need be said that Ukraine is already living in an emergency situation, Parliamentary elections, which are considered a direct threat to Kuchma's and Yeltsin's political interests. And buddy Boris feels free to offer both economic and military support to pal Leonid to control the situation. Not that troops will land on the Verkhovna Rada cupola, but Yeltsin might suggest tougher measures based on his personal experience. And there is Black Sea Fleet if Turkey does not like something, that might happen in the Crimea before the artificially blocked elections.
However, what Yeltsin says might remain just words, and Kuchma might later refuse from Moscow military aid, because such an alliance was not possible due to the special status of Ukraine, according to which it cannot be a member of any military bloc. But this "no" is unlikely to be a categorical refusal. It is also unlikely to explain to the Ukrainian establishment what Ukraine is getting in the Black Sea Fleet division. Why the most pro-Ukrainian political circles in State Duma intend to ratify the corresponding agreements on Black Sea Fleet together with Grand Treaty, noting that they expect similar ratification from official Kyiv. However, Ukrainian Deputies have never seen these agreements. Moreover, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Hennady Udovenko admitted that negotiations on the Black Sea Fleet division have not been completed and six more documents have to be signed, so that lawmakers have something to consider and legalize. It turns out that Russian parliament members have this something and Ukrainian do not. Are there any agreements at all, or can they just not be exposed to the Ukrainian parliament?
In fact, Yeltsin is still considering when the two Presidents should sign the new military agreement; in other words, he thinks various scenarios possible. His Ukrainian colleague seems not to have much choice here: the Constitution forbids him from delegating his powers to anyone else. Ukrainian former Prime Minister Pavlo Lazarenko violated the Ukrainian Constitution, when he signed the Black Sea Fleet agreement.
The problems of gas debts and the history of how Lazarenko and Viakhirev fooled their governments with fake Ukrainian state guarantees caused much discussion. The thing is that the final agreement on gas supply to Ukraine for the near and medium term was signed by Prime Ministers Lazarenko and Chernomyrdyn late May 1997, when it should have been signed by state minister Minchenko and Gasprom head Rem Viakhirev in December 1996. Lazarenko's dismissal was being considered already in Winter of 1996-1997, but back then it was decided against, until this lame duck signed the most complicated agreements between Russia and Ukraine. For doing this Lazarenko retained a few more months, so that no one would find out about his unregistered relationships with Russian gas suppliers.
Thus simultaneously the scales fell from the eyes of Russia's old and Ukraine's new Prime Ministers before signing a new secret agreement, this time for long-term strategic economic cooperation to be followed necessarily by a political-military pact, is not the end, but the beginning of a new great game. The game, in which Russia will try to assist Ukraine with its growing domestic debts that sooner or later will have to be paid off with money or with political compromises. It also stipulates that Russia will exploit Ukrainian plants, atomic power stations, etc. The Ukrainian Parliament will, of course, have to be sidelined, for this organ which cannot ignore the Ukrainian Constitution and legislation and which will sooner or later have to consider the documents signed by President Kuchma before approving them.
The Ukrainian Parliament as the last obstacle explains why Yeltsin makes mistakes on the terms of the Ukrainian parliamentary and presidential elections and announces his secret military alliance with Kuchma. There is no time to waste; during this visit Kuchma might have to tell Yeltsin if he is ready to use his own unique method of making Parliament more democracy-friendly.
A few closing words to Russian colleagues: you may have noticed that Yeltsin said there is no need to change presidents (plural), which means no need to change him either. Thus this question seems to have been solved in Russia too. I wonder if there is anybody to disagree with that!
Photo by Viktor Marushchenko, The Day:
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