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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

Yuliya, Prince, the President, and Others

24 November, 1998 - 00:00


INSTEAD OF A PROLOG

"This is your true face. I know you are worthless. I always suspected
it. Your own interests are dearer to you than the misfortunes of your homeland!
Coward! Egotist! I will not leave it like this! I will complain!" This
monologue is from a great scene in the film, Prophecy, made by popular
Russian director Riazanov.

This is it! The end. On November 9, without any rubbish like the Seven
Days analytical program, Yuliya Tymoshenko appeared in a regular newscast
on national TV. It was just a normal, well-crafted report, and it does
not matter now what exactly Tymoshenko said at her press conference. Having
lifted their unspoken ban from the airwaves, the authorities thus announced
through their spokesmen that Yuliya is now theirs.

Yuliya has not yet repented, nor has she denounced the villain, albeit
ally, Pavlo Lazarenko or sworn her fealty to the President. She simply
explained that if impeachment and government resignation do not come through,
it means that they should take another approach by using the government
to carry out their own ideas so that we do not farm the country out to
the current regime. As Head of the Verkhovna Rada Budget Committee, Tymoshenko
spoke well and knowledgeably on her alternative budget. However, she was
less articulate and coherent answering The Day's question about
the government having apparently solved its main pre-election political
problem, the taming of the non-red opposition, although the question was
quite specific and pointed, "So, has Prince died?" It turns out that now
the opposition includes not only those who "are trying to prove that the
government is ineffective" but also those who "are trying to change the
situation and achieve positive results." According to Tymoshenko, this
will give the opposition the best possible publicity. By opposition, according
to Rukh leader Chornovil, who has been through all of its stages, we mean
"constructive" opposition. In other words, the President was right making
the brave statement, "There is no opposition in Ukraine," for which he
was heavily criticized by the press. Indeed, we have no opposition. The
Left are "opposed" by definition. They are like a necessary element, an
inevitable weight on the feet of the "reformers" stubbornly marching to
the free market, albeit a flea market. The Left simply has to create a
backdrop of tough movement, otherwise nobody will understand how difficult
it is and what kind of tremendous help the reforming government needs.
Only in the times of building communism could one bravely run a headline
saying, "The village of Bychok is marching into the future by seven-mile
steps" in a provincial newspaper. While we build capitalism, the reds are
entitled to play their regressive role and be actively in the way, if only
for the sake of the inevitable completion of construction.

Thus, today we have the Left with its historic mission, the Right "constructive"
Rukh, the Centrist "constructive" Hromada, and the President running for
reelection. This way, all the conditions are in place for organizing the
process according to the second-hand Russian scenario. Even the initial
points of departure are the same: half a year before the election, Boris
Yeltsin's rating was at the mark that is realistic for our President now.
Then the "Red peril" was discussed 24 hours a day on all Russian channels,
pages, and waves. "Vote, or else you lose!" The result was inevitable,
and Boris Yeltsin did not even have to dance. We also have the Progressive
Socialist Party (PSP), a very peculiar socialist opposition. It exists
to render the situation completely absurd because, if the presidential
people in their positions are personally concerned about the expansion
of membership, so that God forbid the Socialist opposition faction does
not fall apart at the critical mark of 14 members (just like the Peasant
faction, by the way) and thus ceases to be a participant in the parliamentary
process, or, to be more accurate, its controlled instrument - this means
that sometimes it is possible to first obtain an opposition role, and everything
that follows is just somebody else's game.

As far as other parties that have claimed an opposition status, their
pillars are currently in other positions: they coordinate the President's
domestic policy and, in particular, make their contribution in developing
counteractions against the opposition for the purpose of national security.
The conclusion may not be right to the point, but it is important for understanding
current Ukrainian realities: it is very difficult to take up serious politics
for someone in our country who is involved in business. And false starts
are twice as destructive here.

"Yuliya got cooked," said parliamentary circles with varying intonations
reflecting different attitudes to the metamorphosis that has happened to
the bright oppositionist who first challenged the President and then said
that "only Leonid Kuchma can today play the decisive role in weathering
the crisis phenomena." The Joan of Arc of Ukrainian politics (she who once
bestowed this image on another persona, the frenzied Natalia Vitrenko,
who has the narrow specialization of finding out the sexual orientation
of her former allies - neither a romantic, nor an aesthete) performed by
Madame Yuliya has again made a call, "Those who love me, follow me!" Oleksandr
Yeliashkevych, one of her closest allies, did not follow. He has no business
of his own, and hence his principles are more stable. He even left the
shadow cabinet but has firmly declined comment on why. This is a manly
attitude, even though it complicates the search for his motives. Can we
reproach Yuliya Tymoshenko for primitivism and lack of understanding that
her 180 degree turnaround is her political death? Should we embrace her
game in mutual understanding with the government as an attempt to defer
a financial blow? Does her move mean that Yuliya is definitely not a team
player but a rigid individualist in politics? Or has the smart young Hromada
members, selected by Yuliya, offered her to play a game in the shady regime
without breaking away from reality? Has Pavlo Lazarenko definitely become
a "parallel line"? Should her coming out of his image's shadow be considered
an application for an irrevocably free swim? Or, perhaps, the issue is
crystal clear - financial resources have been exhausted, there are no revenues,
the Unified Energy System's debts have not been paid off - so they need
original solutions, and in reality we are dealing with great mystification
here. Something like the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, to give away a part in
order to keep the whole. And who is more concerned about it, Yuliya herself
or those who bet on her?

Whatever the case, we still have to acknowledge with surprise that some
people in the Presidential Administration know how to pay for their daily
bread. Oleksandr Lavrynovych also seems to think that "the President's
people in charge of the election campaign are doing a rather powerful job.
They are capable of providing conditions for the 'right' choice - from
their point of view." However, according to Lavrynovych, "it is premature
to claim that the non-Left opposition has been gutted; rather, we should
speak of its weakening and disintegration." Oleksandr Moroz does not agree
that the Moscow scheme can work in Ukraine, "If we apply the reformer-communist
threat election dilemma in Russia to Ukraine, we should hardly expect any
positive assessment of our government's activities. In Ukraine, the direction
of struggle will be determined by whether we want to live in a normal state
or in one run by thieves." In Moroz's view, "those who could react to the
reformer vs. communist scheme have long ago understood that the principal
threat is corruption that has permeated all government structures from
the top down." Moroz also does not agree that the government has managed
to destroy the non-Left opposition, "Maybe, there are local fights going
on, there are attempts to find some mutually acceptable positions so that
they can put up the white flags together." Does this mean a mutual write-off
of intentions? Moreover, Oleksandr Moroz points out that there is a process
of disintegration underway on the conventionally right flank as well, "And
the most important thing is that the clan element plays the leading role
there. That environment is getting more dispersed, and time will tell on
what grounds it will be united." Considering the turmoil within the People's
Democratic Party with regard to the bid on the presidential race favorite
and Bakai oil and gas group's secession from the NDP faction, the process
is indeed in full gear.

However, today the fact remains that Yuliya Tymoshenko's tea parties
with the President have changed the arrangement of forces on the pre-election
board in favor of the latter. I feel sorry for Prince, the country, and
us. I wish our opposition would fight fearlessly and adamantly to the end,
just like in other countries. The diminutive Yuliya in the vanguard - "Those
who... follow me!" The President's people are having a fit, the West does
not believe in the communist threat, the people believe in other reformers...
Oh, Yuliya! It would be so nice: a big campfire and a small oppositionist...
Such a disappointment: the hungry people are deprived even of their entertainment.
You should have seen the malicious condescension on the faces of some People's
Deputies discussing Tymoshenko's line. What is the problem, sirs, the place
on the campfire is vacant.

INSTEAD OF AN EPILOGUE

An eccentric old man, a former actor playing "Dinner is served!" roles,
says to the main character in Riazanov's Prophecy, "You know, the country
is on the verge of collapse. I have come up with the way to save the country.
You should burn yourself in Red Square. I will help you carry a of gasoline
there. While you are burning, I will stand by you and catch the placard
when it drops from your burnt, weakening hands." The suggestion was not
accepted. And then, see the beginning. Funny and silly, isn't it?

COMMENTARY

Of course, Tetiana Korobova's version does not exhaust the issue of
Hromada's opposition in general and Yuliya Tymoshenko's in particular.
We should point out that we are dealing rather with an opposition myth.
It is no accident that the Hromada platform provisions are almost no different
from those of, say, the People's Democratic Party. The bottom line, as
it turns out, is that the wrong people are in power rather than the kind
of policy those people implement. However, the Tymoshenko opposition myth
had proved rather successful given that the Presidential Administration
took the bait and made a concerted effort to eliminate it. Or rather, it
speaks of the quality of an administration which is preoccupied by any
uncontrolled political moves.

 

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