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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

Meanwhile consumers are threatened by 30% fuel deficit

16 November, 1999 - 00:00

There are signs that Ukraine, having just about recovered from the gasoline crisis, will be gripped by a natural gas one right after the elections. The difference between Ukraine’s demand and planned gas supplies this November, as approved by the Naftohaz Ukrayiny (Oil & Gas of Ukraine) board, will reach 2.54 billion cubic meters — or 30.5% of overall requirements, Interfax Ukraine reports.

The roots of the coming woes are not least to be found in the political situation. The national joint stock company, founded a year ago contrary to objections from the Antimonopoly Committee and international financial institutions, had the secret task of helping the current President’s campaign, and not only by its contribution to reviving the oil and gas complex and the rest of the economy. Today it is not hard to predict that the current regimes takes a dim view of the company’s contribution to the presidential campaign. The most eloquent proof is Premier Pustovoitenko’s recent statement. Interfax Ukraine quotes him as saying that the government plans to close Naftohaz’s central bank account after the elections. The Day’s experts believe that this move will be a heavy blow to Naftohaz President Ihor Bakai, actually meaning his removal.

Meanwhile Mr. Bakai, regarded by lawmakers as an oligarch (perhaps not without reason, as one might judge by the draft Verkhovna Rada message to the US Congress, requesting checks of the bank accounts of various prominent Ukrainian citizens), has never been unquestioningly loyal to the regime. In fact, he has always seemed to have something up his sleeve. Several days prior to the election, the newspaper Segodnia carried his article “The Drudge’s Toil Is Thankless,” offering a rather critical view of the regime. And the opening line speaks for itself: “You can’t skin one bull seven times.” Most likely, the Premier’s statement is a direct response to Ihor Bakai’s insolence at the campaign’s peak. Needless to say, the President’s entourage, with Viktor Pinchuk currently playing the first violin, will have no problem replacing him as an oil-and-gas tycoon; there will be no shortage of contenders for the lucrative post.

Simultaneously, the elections show that a lot of ordinary Ukrainian citizens have scant interest in all these political maneuvers, now smelling of gas. They are more concerned about their daily worries and household problems. And this raises the question of natural gas: Will there be enough and how will they have to pay for it? Unlike Naftohaz Ukrayiny, trying to please the electorate and keep the government happy, as evidenced by its unprecedented public board meeting, we are hard put to find consoling words for ourselves. The deficit of natural gas will probably remain strong not only in November but also in December when it will be much colder. The company board’s documents show that Russia is not going to sell gas to Ukraine (except as payment for transit). And so our gas diplomacy has shifted its focus to Turkmenistan. On October 27 Naftohaz showed stamina, promising to buy just 3-5 million cubic meters from that country to supply needs in the year 2000 (courtesy of Interfax Ukraine), provided the cost is lowered from $36 (on the Uzbekistan border) to $20. The news agency’s latest reports indicate that gas procurement plans now come to 15-20 billion cubic meters, and there is no word on the price. And this is but natural, considering that Ukraine has to borrow from a prestigious international bank to repay its current debt. Under the circumstances, Ukrainian citizens, faced with a $12 billion national debt, are hardly likely to rejoice in this newly reached understanding.

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