Most of the problems result from the lack of communication

The two-day visit of Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Serik Akhmetov to Ukraine that took place these days was very important for Kyiv. This is explained by the fact that Kazakhstan is an initiator and member of the Customs Union. And the very fact of this visit taking place in the time when Moscow is pressurizing Ukraine to join the Customs Union deserves respect.

Traditionally, such meetings of heads of states are an opportunity to exchange opinions, make plans, sign agreements, with a view to increasing goods turnover and investments influx. That is what the head of Ukraine’s СCabinet Mykola Azarov and his guest were busy with during the meeting. They signed an action plan for Ukraine and Kazakhstan for 2013 and 2014, prepared a few days earlier at the meeting of the joint Kazakhstan-Ukraine Intergovernmental Commission for Economic Cooperation. The parties also signed a cooperation program for science and technologies between Ukraine’s State Agency for Science, Innovation and Informatization and the Committee of Science of the Ministry of Education and Science of Kazakhstan for the period of 2013-15. The parties also agreed to develop a cooperation program in space for 2014-15.

Azarov noted during the meeting with Akhmetov that Ukraine and Kazakhstan have a great potential of intensifying cooperation in aviation, space, energy, transport, agriculture, science, and technology. “Undoubtedly, your official visit will consolidate our mutual relations and provide a new impulse for their development,” said Ukraine’s prime minister. Let us remind that overall trade between Kazakhstan and Ukraine has increased from 2.6 billion to 4.18 billion dollars over the past 5 years. Kazakhstan is Ukraine’s third largest trade partner among the CIS countries in terms of goods turnover, and the eighth among all partners.

In his turn, Akhmetov also thinks that Ukraine and Kazakhstan have a considerable potential of trade and economic cooperation. “We value our relations very much. Ukraine is one of our most important trade and political partners. And thanks to the constructive dialog and specific agreements on the highest level, our countries have reached the quality level of mutual relations,” noted the Kazakh prime minister.

The Day asked experts from Ukraine and Kazakhstan to comment on the visit of the head of Kazakhstan’s Cabinet of Ministers and tell what is expected of it in Kyiv and Astana.

Dosym SATPAYEV, Doctor of Political Sciences, director of the Kazakhstan Risks Assessment Group:

“Ukraine is not a strategic partner for Kazakhstan. Firstly, because Ukraine is not a part of the integrated unions Kazakhstan positions as the priority ones. First of all, I mean the Customs Union and the future Eurasian Union, which Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan attempt to create before 2015. Secondly, the very serious Russian factor influences Kazakh and Ukrainian relations, including the energy resources transportation. Once Kazakhstan’s government used to say they supported the necessity of entering Ukrainian market. At the same time, Kazakhstan stated that many energy resources transportation routes go through Russia. This is a transit country, which presents a sort of limitation.

“That is why it should not be said that Ukraine is a key partner for Kazakhstan. On the other hand, this country is one of the largest CIS states. That is why in the first place, the Kazakh prime minister counts on specific Kazakh goods entering Ukrainian market. I would not say that there is a great number of such goods, but lately, Kazakhstan’s government is actively trying to expand the markets of Kazakh product export in the post-Soviet countries. And the Ukrainian market is viewed as a promising one. I want to emphasize that this visit is not going to lead to any global changes because Ukraine is not on the list of Kazakhstan’s strategic partners and is one of the countries Kazakhstan plans to develop a steady, positive relations with, but there is little chance it is ready to carry out grand economic and other projects with Ukraine.”

Why? What hampers this?

“Everything depends on objective reasons here, which impede this cooperation. Firstly, it is the Russian factor mentioned above. Ukraine is interested in gaining access to Kazakhstan’s energy sources. And the Ukrainian government made statements saying that they count on securing access to Kazakhstan’s oil. Russia as a transit state will create certain obstacles. In this case, Kazakhstan is restrained in its actions and desire to develop the cooperation with Ukraine.”

But what about other areas?

“Kazakhstan is interested in Ukrainian technologies, industrial products, machinery, equipment, and various products. In this regard, Ukraine can find an external market here. But at the moment, these opportunities are limited.”

Will the development of mutual cooperation with Kazakhstan help Ukraine avoid joining the Customs Union, as some experts believe?

“The chief utopianist playing with the idea of Ukraine’s entering the Customs Union is Russia, of course. It is no secret that it is more of a geopolitical project for the Russian Federation. Russia’s main goal is to drag Ukraine into the Customs Union. And it is hard to create a powerful regional union without Ukraine.

“Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s government has continuously stated that it does not support a rapid expansion of the Customs Union. It is purely Russian fixed idea.

“Kazakhstan is ready to support the idea of cooperation between Ukraine and the Customs Union in the format ‘3+1.’ Ukraine could develop a close partnership with the Customs Union in general without entering it, and with particular states that are its members. And of course, it could receive certain preferences. But Russia would not agree to that. I think that Kazakhstan is more flexible in this sense.”

Oleksii TOLKACHOV, political scientist:

“In my opinion, the visit of Kazakhstan’s prime minister to Ukraine is of great importance, because it provides a chance to build mutual relations outside the Customs Union. In fact, for Ukraine they are a replacement of the Customs Union and integration processes offered by Russia. On the other hand, in the context of increasing goods turnover and intensifying strategic cooperation with Kazakhstan, I think that such visit would be a new step, a new phase of the further increase of turnover and, perhaps even investment influx from Kazakhstan to Ukraine.

“I can see great prospects of cooperation between Ukraine and Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan in particular. The only matter that still remains unclear for me is the transit of Kazakhstan’s gas to Ukraine. Oil and gas can be produced there. I hope that in this situation with Kazakhstan, a solution on supplying this oil to Ukraine will be found. I understand that Naftohaz is interested in the development of Kazakhstan’s resources. It should be expected that in this context some agreements will be made on the highest level. And Naftohaz will be able to start operating in Kazakhstan.

“Talking about cooperation in space, aviation, and other branches, the main obstacle there is the absence of information about the opportunities and advantages of cooperation. In my opinion, most problems arise due to a lack of communication. And we were constantly offered this communication and opportunity for cooperation within the Customs Union. By this visit, the communication is carried out directly, without any intermediaries.

“So, the development of mutual relations may become a replacement to full membership in the Customs Union, and this might be Ukraine’s ultimate argument for Moscow on the absence of purpose of Ukraine’s membership in the Customs Union. Why do we need to enter it when we have developed comprehensive relations with all its members? Therefore, this might canalize the pressure which is applied by Russia to Ukraine in the matter of joining the Customs Union.”