The Day's Oleksa Pidlutsky called Alexander Rahr, a noted German political analyst, in Bonn and asked him to comment on the situation in Russia.
Q.: On September 1, after the precipitous fall of securities on the New York and Hong Kong exchanges, certain Western experts started talking about a world crisis, some even drawing parallels with what happened back in 1929. Is all this because of the crisis in Russia, despite the fact that its share in world trade is comparable to that of Switzerland and less than that of Singapore?
A.: I don't think that what is happening indicates the beginning of a deep-going world financial crisis. After a certain financial "storm" the situation in the developed Western countries will get back to normal. As for the feverish activities on world stock exchanges, Russia cannot be considered as playing a crucial role on the world market. Thus, the Western sharp response is caused not so much by Russia's financial crisis as by its political one, seeing the latter as a threat of the Communists returning to power and the Russian Federation falling apart.
Q.: Do you think these fears are justified?
A.: It is hard to say, because the situation in Russia is still vague. Its crisis has three dimensions: constitutional, political, and economic. In other words, anything can happen. One thing is clear: Russia will never get out of it single-handedly. It needs help.
The events in Russia will certainly have a most negative effect on the markets of Eastern and Central Europe. Investors there are bound to fear similar crises elsewhere in the CIS, and even in postsocialist countries other than former Soviet republics. And whether these fears are justified or not will not help the situation much.
Q.: Is the Russian crisis in any way comparable to what happened in Asia last year, in terms of scope and consequences?
A.: In both cases the crisis was structural, although in Asia it went even deeper, but then Asia had and still has a balanced and effective market system and production never stopped. In that situation it was more or less clear what steps had to be taken and what course to choose. And the West was helping on a broader scale. In Russia, the crisis is primarily political, so it must be settled using political means. Russia will have to rebuild its entire political system.







