Smell of Caspian Oil Reaches Slovakia

Leonid Kuchma’s visit to Slovakia on June 13-14 showed that what was to have occurred long ago is only now beginning: normal, pragmatic relations with our neighbors without all the loud declarations of strategic partnership. Moreover, as experience shows, problems are always caused not by political decisions of the state leadership but by the way agreements are implemented.

What can obviously be considered a political agreement is Pres. Kuchma’s opinion on the good prospects for bilateral cooperation in energy resource transport (according to him, this cooperation is already taking place at the business level between Slovakia’s Transpetrol Company and the International Druzhba Oil Pipeline) and the announcement of Slovak President Rudolf Schuster on his country’s readiness to cooperate. Slovakia’s interest in participating in the transit of Caspian oil through the Odesa-Brody pipeline is being probably restrained by the same factors as in the case of Poland: an unclear situation concerning who will form the consortium and on what basis, an unclear situation with markets and likely sizes of supplies, Ukraine’s lack of preparedness to take a normal commercial approach with clear calculations based on the real potential. Still, the interest exists.

What looks like a more serious problem is finishing the construction of the Kryvy Rih Ore Enrichment Combine. Interfax- Ukraine quotes Mr. Schuster as saying that Slovakia is interested, but we know very well the attitude of the Slovak government, which wields more power than the president does. A year ago the government of Slovakia suggested to the Ukrainian government that it take over the already-built facilities and compensate for the expenses. The same view is held by owners of the Ko я sice Metals Combine, which works with Ukrainian raw materials. Incidentally, representatives of Romania, which also invested in finishing the facility, have been also been expressing their displeasure for a long time. Mr. Schuster believes his country will need the rolled metal the combine is slated to produce and that it is quite possible to find a potential investor (it will take another $900 million to finish construction).

There is no information, however, about Slovakia’s stand on Russian plans to build transit gas pipelines bypassing Ukrainian territory. Incidentally, Mr. Kuchma said in Bratislava that all reports “about Ukraine illegally siphoning off gas” are an example of economic pressure and stated that Ukraine has never pilfered or resold natural gas. Formerly, Bratislava said no decisions should harm Ukraine’s interests.

Also unclear remained the specific results of the visa regime introduced by Slovakia for Ukrainians almost a year ago. While the Ukrainians are certain that no expected results have been achieved, the Slovaks think there can only be a question of easing, not lifting, such treatment.

Of course, the customary declarations could not be avoided. In particular, Mr. Kuchma and Mr. Schuster reiterated that Ukraine had chosen a European path and Slovakia would support Ukraine in pursuing it. Ukraine, to quote the Slovak president, is “a strong link in the chain of European democracies.” Mr. Kuchma thinks Ukraine is on the right track but is moving slower than it would like to due to a number of political and other circumstances. Ukraine is not going to drop its nonaligned status. In the Ukrainian president’s opinion, all Ukraine needs now is strong presidential power and what it does not need is a parliament incapable of forming a stable majority. This was not exactly front page news. On the other hand, Mr. Schuster said Slovakia will not make mistakes and will consult Ukraine when putting forward its candidature to chair the UN Security Council in 2006-2007. Incidentally, Slovakia has taken a calm attitude toward all Ukraine’s most recent problems. However, contacts between various elites and strata could be more frequent and of higher quality if common movement toward Europe is really the issue.