Crisis of Confidence

“We would like to hear the opinion of an experienced diplomat known in Ukraine as well as in the West and East: what is going on in US-Ukrainian relations? We still remember the triumphal visit to Washington of Ukraine’s first President Leonid Kravchuk, when the Americans showed considerable respect for and attention to the Ukrainians. But today we see a crisis of confidence... Or what should we call it?”

“I think it will be right to characterize the current situation as a crisis of confidence: confidence in us, not the other way round.”

“Unfortunately, our side has also done rather much to this end. It is not for the first time that Ukraine is being accused of breaching sanctions. As far as I remember, in the early nineties the US embassy was concerned about our breaking sanctions against carrying oil products and other goods to Yugoslavia on the Danube. This was followed — in fact from 1992 to 1994 — by a debate on the role of nuclear arms. I think these were the lost years for a normal development of US-Ukrainian in particular, and Western-Ukrainian in general, relations. And, finally, the problems that arose after the disappearance and death of Heorhy Gongadze, the tapegate... All this, of course, was bound to adversely affect the attitude to Ukraine. And I, having devoted at least ten years of my diplomatic career to improving the state’s prestige, find it very distressing that Ukraine’s reputation has touched an all-time low today. Now about what caused this crisis of confidence. In my opinion, the leadership and law enforcement bodies did very little to show, on the one hand, the political will and, on the other hand, professionalism in investigating the notorious cases that cast a shadow on this country’s prestige. It seems to me very little is being done to explain both to our partners and to our own society what is going on and to answer the following questions: who, why, and how murdered Gongadze, why was there no progress in the investigation of this case before? To what extent authentic are the taped conversations about the alleged — I stress, alleged, — sales of sensitive weapons to Iraq? No answers. The absence of answers in turn touches off a new wave of information and rumors circulating in the world press. Whatever newspaper you open today — The Times, The Guardian, The International Herald Tribune, etc. — they all carry negative information about Ukraine. Our country is now being mentioned in connection with the so-called Iraqgate, the political crisis, and protest actions. And, regrettably enough, the Ukrainian side furnishes very little clear-cut and specific information.”

“Do you think information can help in this situation? Or, maybe, things have gone so far that there must be some other steps, for we had known about this kind of tapes before? Although US Ambassador to Ukraine Carlos Pascual says there is nothing in common between the domestic situation in Ukraine and this scandal, many observers are inclined to think just the contrary. Your opinion?”

“I cannot personally rule out this as one of the versions, although the American side denies it. Yet it is obvious that the world reacts very sensitively to any information related to Iraq. So any information that a certain country has breached UN Security Council sanctions against the sales of weapons — any weapons, let alone modern radar systems, — has, of course, a negative effect on the image of this state. All over the world, everything related to Iraq hits the front pages of newspapers.”

“As to preparation of the military operation against Iraq, some people in the US, including Democrats, believe today that the negotiation process has not yet exhausted itself. At the same time, we see such close attention being paid to the tapes alone — the Americans themselves say they have no evidence of the Kolchuha (early warning radar —Ed.) deployed in Iraq. Can we say the White House has now shown an adequate reaction to the very fact of a conversation?”

“I am not going to justify, say, the actions of the US administration. What worries me is damage being done to Ukraine’s reputation. But let us look at the situation through the eyes of Washington. What is going on? They are trying — without much success thus far — to convince the world community and their allies in the necessity to conduct a military operation against Iraq. There are no legitimate grounds, such as a UN Security Council decision. I personally believe the US would commit a grave mistake opting for a military operation against Iraq without the UN Security Council mandate. At the same time, the US stand is, in a way, justifiable. There is a very heated debate going on. The debate involves Congress, the UN Security Council, the UN as a whole, NATO — in fact the whole world. And suddenly US officials learn that Ukraine may have supplied Iraq with radar systems, which can lead to human losses should the US aircraft fly sorties. But this is just a hypothesis which, in all probability, the Americans should be and perhaps are thinking over. I don’t want to resort to speculations about motivations. I think it incorrect to use force without a UN Security Council sanction — the way it happened, for instance, with Yugoslavia in 1999. At the same time, we can debate endlessly on whether the information about the likely delivery of Ukrainian arms to Iraq was leaked into the world community and the media on purpose. Definitely, we have to put the question in a different way: what kind of effect will this matter have on our prestige? By all accounts, negative. What is to be done to wipe out this negative layer? We cannot stop these allegations. What can we do? Provide convincing enough information, show the political will for cooperation and joint inquiries in order to solve these problems if we are sure there were no supplies of this kind. Judging by the letter foreign minister Anatoly Zlenko sent to the Security Council chairman, — which must be treated as the official point of view — this country is denying all allegations, i.e., it is absolutely clean. Now imagine — again hypothetically — that this is not so. Leaving apart the unenviable destiny of this letter’s author, this will deal a staggering blow to the reputation of Ukraine as a state. As a people’s deputy, I am personally not sure that nothing happened. Nobody has ever tried to persuade me. However, as a citizen, I would of course like to believe that no weapons were in fact transferred.”

“But now the leadership shows openness, suggesting the establishment of an international expert commission, a parliamentary investigative commission, etc. Will you take part in this investigation?”

“I will if I am invited to. The more so that, when still at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, I dealt with military and military-political matters and was member of the Exports Control Committee; in other words, I am familiar with this issue. But I say again that this investigation will only bring success if the authorities or, to be more exact, all those dealing with the export of arms and dual-purpose technologies are prepared to do their best, if we have reliable information, after all.”

“And how would you comment on the quip of VR Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn that some politicians, officials, and deputies very often visit Iraq and are literally pressing the President ‘to hold negotiations’?”

“I must say I know these people. When I was minister of foreign affairs, I would receive Verkhovna Rada ‘envoys’ who persistently suggested establishing all kinds of contacts. What is more, as far as I knew, this interest went farther than the Oil for Food program: the question was about more serious things, including armaments. So this remark of the VR speaker is absolutely to the point — there are some business circles that want to make money without taking pains to study the market, search for partners, etc. But this is not these deputies who decide to transfer or not to transfer weapons and give instructions bypassing the Exports Control Committee.”

“An individual not initiated in the subtleties of diplomacy can voice a doubt: is it possible at all to furnish convincing evidence of the absence of the Kolchuha in Iraq? The more so that the US does not seem inclined just now to believe Ukraine, for it is now forming a global anti-Iraqi context which the ‘Ukrainian arms’ very well fit in with. The impression is that only Saddam Hussein himself can furnish such evidence...”

“Given the present-day technological level, it is not so difficult to dig up evidence. The US also has sufficient technical means, including reconnaissance satellites. Iraq must really show readiness to receive UN inspections which will perhaps prove whether the claims about radar systems on its territory are true or false. I think this issue should be eventually put an end to.”

(To be concluded in The Day’s next issue)