Lilia SHEVTSOVA: “We witness the beginning of the agony of the current regime, as its reproduction resources are running out”
The Kremlin has begun to sound a somewhat conciliatory note lately as it addresses the West and NATO. The Foreign Ministry of Russia, in particular, said they did not believe their country had passed the “point of no return” in its relations with NATO, and stated they were ready to interact with this organization. At the same time, they stressed that “a lot will depend on the willingness of our colleagues from NATO countries to stand up to reality,” even though it is Russia that has to stand up to reality in this case. The statement made by Russian President Vladimir Putin at a press conference in Ankara after talks with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Russia could not in the present environment continue the implementation of the South Stream project without Bulgaria’s permission can also be seen as a step towards recognizing realities on the ground.
The Day asked senior fellow at the Brookings Institution (Washington) Lilia SHEVTSOVA to comment on the recent statements by the Kremlin and to try and predict how things would develop in Russia as the nation’s economic situation deteriorates and the ruble keeps falling, and also assess whether Putin was ready to backtrack on his policies.
“During his visit to Turkey, Putin looked confused. He is usually in control of himself and gets other leaders confused. This time, it was the other way around. At the joint press conference with the Turkish leader Erdogan, the Russian president had troubles with his choice of words, built clumsy word combinations, and it was evident that he was uncomfortable to say what he said. He said that one of his pet projects, the South Stream, had died. Moreover, he had to bury his dream of ‘encircling’ Europe by pincer movement of the Kremlin-sponsored pipelines, which would perpetuate its dependence on the Russian energy supply.
“However, what we saw in Turkey was the official funeral of Russia as an energy power, but its agony began in the earnest several years ago, when the European Commission did not allow the Kremlin to bypass European antitrust energy legislation which was directed against Gazprom as well. Russia spent several years looking for ways to bypass European antitrust laws, all in vain.
“So, we are dealing now with the end of the painful agony, disguised by cheap statements having nothing but void, simulation, and lie to support them. Will the Kremlin succeed in its drive to seduce Turkey with cheap gas and prevent its participation in the construction of a gas pipeline from Azerbaijan? I doubt it. I have my doubts on Putin’s idea of a ‘hub’ in Greece as well, which obviously would be contrary to European law.
“Furthermore, we are dealing today with a desperate attempt by the Kremlin to keep its play on stage, even though there is no fourth act to it, and the audience has left the theater... Erdogan’s part is to tell the representatives of the NuclearPetrostate: ‘Guys, we do not need your goods. Even on the cheap!’
“With regard to its statements about the ‘point of no return’ in its relations with NATO, the Kremlin is doing what it has to do within the paradigm to which it has descended, the paradigm of wartime. Russian history saw it more than once: when the Russian system met insurmountable challenges, it always shifted to the wartime mode. For a long time, the system had the resources to exist in this mode, and then pause, move to the peacetime mode, relax, only to restart the besieged fortress mode again later. But the thing is that the resources needed for the reproduction of the fortress are running out. The Kremlin cannot allow the limited pluralism of the previous period and keep dialog with the West, but the resources needed to contain the West and keep the confrontation with it on are absent as well. The system has been paralyzed! Moreover, we witness the beginning of the agony of the current regime, as its reproduction resources are running out, and the Kremlin is starting to thrash about, trying to find a way out of the impasse that it has dragged the country into.
“On the one hand, the Kremlin cannot retreat and get out of the military-patriotic mobilization mode. But on the other hand, the transition to the wartime mode is pushing the country into the crisis... And what will follow the crisis? I think the very thought of it makes the Kremlin residents feel sick.
“This lies at the root of their attempts to tell the West: ‘Let us stop the sanctions race! We do not believe that the ‘point of no return’ has been passed in our relations with NATO!’ It marks recognition of the hopelessness of the situation, but that does not mean the Kremlin’s willingness to return to the status quo ante. It no longer exists. The Kremlin cannot admit defeat and cannot renounce the doctrine of deterrence, for it would mean destroying the very foundation of its power. It can agree to a peace or a truce which could be presented as a victory. Meanwhile, the Kremlin would leave interpreting the rules of the game to itself! Some Western capitals are willing to accept this version of the world, but not all of them. The process of mutual distancing between Russia and the liberal world has started and cannot be stopped, and what we see now is just the beginning of this process.”
