On the trump card of Ukrainian diplomacy

It seems that the Germans are starting to understand the need to provide Ukraine with lethal defensive weapons and maintain the EU sanctions against Russia. On the one hand, according to the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, a number of German politicians from the ranks of the ruling conservative Christian Democratic Union have expressed support for providing Ukraine with lethal weapons. On the other hand, the publication states that politicians from other parties of the government coalition, that is, the Social Democratic Party of Germany and the Green Party, are in favor of maintaining the EU sanctions.

In particular, Christian Democratic MEP Michael Gahler called for Ukraine to get greater intelligence capabilities and defensive weapons, saying that it was about a legitimate defense which Ukraine urgently needed to strengthen to avert the likely new Russian offensive.

His party colleague and chairman of the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs Elmar Brok also called for Ukraine to get better military equipment. According to him, defensive weapons should be supplied to Ukraine to the extent that could not be used by Russia to disrupt the Minsk Agreements’ implementation. The politician added that due to violations of ceasefire recorded by the OSCE, any weakening or abolition of sanctions against Russia was totally out of the question.

On the other hand, the German publication states that Social Democratic member of the Defense Committee of the German Bundestag Fritz Felgentreu was critical about sending weapons to Ukraine. In his view, this may result in an arms race in which Ukraine would still lag behind and which would not lead to a significant change in the overall situation, but would increase the number of victims. But instead, he said, the EU should not exclude the possibility of further strengthening sanctions against Russia and it should develop specific proposals in this regard.

Meanwhile, the Green Party’s spokeswoman Rebecca Harms stressed that EU governments should finally stop burdening the government of Ukraine and the separatists with equal responsibility for the escalation of military tensions. “This equating is intolerable and weakens reformers in Ukraine,” she stressed.

The Sunday issue of Frankfurter Allgemeine analyzed daily reports of the OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine between mid-April and late July 2016 and noticed that, despite the much more frequent restrictions imposed on the work of the mission by the separatists, the observers noted many more prohibited weapons in the occupied territories than on the territory controlled by the central government, and the militants similarly carried out many more attacks than the Ukrainian troops.

However, the publication notes that the assessment of the situation in the east of Ukraine offered by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Germany is significantly different from the newspaper’s own: the ministry claims that there is no clear evidence of a much larger number of violations being committed by any party and that providing weapons to Ukraine, even ones of defensive nature, is not part of the minister’s approach to conflict resolution in Ukraine.

The Day turned to Volodymyr OHRYZKO, former Foreign Minister of Ukraine, asking for a commentary on the abovementioned statements by German politicians regarding the necessity of lethal weapons for Ukraine.

“To an extent, I find the recent articles in German press encouraging. Just last week, Die Welt wrote that Ukraine should finally start receiving help – and the help should be serious, including provision of necessary weapons. And now you mentioned another newspaper, Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung. This means that German society and politics are starting to understand more and more the real threat that comes from Russia. To that, a dissonance is found in the position of Social Democrats and in Steinmeier’s visit to Russia today, where he spoke about peace and friendship. But I think that Chancellor Angela Merkel will still play a key role in foreign policy. And I hope that this trend will eventually turn out to be very important and useful for Ukraine.

“And it should be noted that the Russian lies that have been perpetuated over many months are starting to irritate normal people. Everyone perfectly understands what is happening, and Moscow still pretends to be the only bearer of truth in this world. But as there are many sources of information, analysis shows that Moscow continues to lie blatantly and cynically, and that causes some revulsion.

“In my opinion, despite the social-democratic flirting with Kremlin, the German politics finds a more appropriate stance, and this is a positive thing for Ukraine’s foreign policy.

“Frankly, I was very surprised of what I hear after Putin has announced that Russia would refuse from Normandy format – in fact, this is a great trump card in the hands of Ukrainian diplomacy. We need to bring the attention of our Western partners that Russia is: a) not a predictable partner; b) a partner that refuses obligations at a whim; c) an aggressive partner. And in light of that, this partner can only be made business with from a position of strength, even if the West hopes otherwise. When we begin to say that our main goal is to return Russia to Minsk format, we are just aiming in the wrong direction.

“On the contrary, now is a very opportune moment to rally Western and Ukrainian positions and act as one front. The big problem is – and it concerns not only us, but the Western world as well – that people are thinking about the next election, not about the future of their country or a continent. I hope that despite everything I mentioned, the stance of strong politicians, and primarily I speak of Merkel, will remain strong and get only stronger – that would mean that we have a perspective.”