Will the parliament of Belarus leave the shadows?

For the first time in 20 years, opposition politicians will enter the parliament of Belarus. According to the results of the vote held on September 11, a seat in the House of Representatives has been won by Anna Konopatskaya, a member of the opposition United Civil Party (UCP). In addition, independent candidate Elena Anisim entered the parliament as well; she serves as deputy head of the Belarusian Language Society (BLS). For the past 16 years, all 110 seats in the House of Representatives were held by supporters of the country’s President Alexander Lukashenko’s policy.

The Day asked Belarusian political analyst Victor MARTINOVICH to comment on the election results and tell us what the Belarusian public could realistically expect from the two opposition MPs.

“The authorities just want the election to be recognized, and at the same time do not want to allow anything like real election. Thus, they chose these two seats in the legislature as a kind of sacrificial ram. I am surprised, to be honest, because the presence of even a single opposition member in the House of Representatives will make its internal workings transparent. I did not expect them to let Anisim or any other opposition politician to enter the House of Representatives.

“There are persistent rumors that the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) is preparing to issue a neutral assessment about the election. And I am bitter about it, because in fact, this election was obviously the same as the previous ones.

“Am I pleased that following this election, two nominal opposition members have entered the parliament? I do not think so, because most likely, these people have not been elected, but rather let in under some quota. And so, they seem to agree to certain rules of the game. It seems to me that this is not the way one should win elections.

“On the other hand, as a Belarusian patriot, I am pleased that the Belarusian language will now be represented in the House of Representatives by a senior member of the BLS.”

The head of the CIS Executive Committee Sergei Lebedev said that many Western observers were using double standards, criticizing Belarus “for early voting, but sparing the US over the same issue.” What do you think of the Belarusian practice of early voting?

“The thing is, Russia has always recognized Belarusian elections as free and fair. It is one of those partners who understand the rules of the game in effect here. With regard to early voting, it should be banned. When according to official figures one third of the electorate votes ahead of time, why should it be called an election at all? Let us make every election a year-long process then, so that observers would be unable to monitor ballot boxes at all. This scheme has become increasingly widely used since 1995, and due to it, a number of politicians have expressed doubt that the votes are counted at all. They believe that protocols being prepared in these days before the regular voting day are used to stuff the boxes with the needed amount of ballots, thus ensuring compliance with the final protocol figures regardless of what really is in the ballot boxes. After all, one cannot even see how they are counting the votes. Our media have run a lot of stories of observers being disallowed from precincts during the vote count. This is obviously not an election, since a real election has observers present during the vote count, and poll workers raising each ballot and reading the choice aloud. I expect the ODIHR to issue a skeptical or neutral-negative assessment of this election.”

Why have the Belarusian opposition leaders failed to enter the parliament?

“The UCP has got Konopatskaya in the parliament. She is a relatively young woman who is inferior in many ways, including political experience, to the party’s leader. I think that had Anatoly Lebedko entered the House of Representatives, he would have begun to reveal its internal workings very soon.

“Konopatskaya and Anisim are two opposition figures who people can sympathize with, but, in my opinion, they are not real politicians, capable of entering into an argument or appearing on TV. It seems that they are elected to the parliament precisely because of their deficiencies. In addition, everyone perceived the ‘Tell the Truth’ movement as the constructive opposition in the past six months, and expected two representatives of this movement to get seats in the parliament, but this has not happened.”

What to expect from the two opposition figures, will they use the parliament as a platform to convey alternative opinions?

“I expect Anisim to continue her work to decriminalize the Belarusian language and culture. I expect their presence in the parliament to restore the legislative discussion culture. We have hundreds of bills passed at every session, and it takes an average of two to three minutes to discuss a bill. The presence of these two persons representing the UCP and the BLS holds out a promise of restarting the legislative discussion and debate.

“From time to time, this nation passes laws of mind-numbing severity and inadequacy. For example, look at a package of amendments to the existing legislation relating to the ‘social parasites.’ The unemployed are entitled to receive some support from the state everywhere, but only in Belarus they are obliged to pay tax to the state because they do not have jobs. In this way, the Ministry of Social Policy and Labor and other welfare agencies try to deal with the Belarusians hiding their incomes. But de facto, this is nonsense, and this law was not discussed at all. I hope that Konopatskaya will at least stage some sort of performance in the parliament to make the authors of such legislative initiatives think how they are perceived. I do not know whether the two opposition figures will be able to really destabilize the situation, like the Republic parliamentary group did back in its day, when it had an athlete, a former general, and two lawyers in the House of Representatives. That quartet somehow managed to change the situation by pushing counter-initiatives. Then, parliamentary sessions were interesting events to visit or watch. These days, the Belarusian parliament’s sessions are not broadcast. It all takes place in a slow mode in shadows. I hope that the parliament will leave the shadows somewhat and we will see what is happening there.”