Will Aluminum Grab be Foiled?

The aluminum scandal described in this issue is a particularly good illustration of how in this country (and the CIS in general), public politics have far less to do with determining how things will be than what goes on behind closed doors. Politics is always to some extent about who gets what, but seldom is it as blatant or downright odoriferous as in the former Soviet Union. Without putting too much of a spin on it, it looks like the incumbent is not only in cahoots with some pretty shady figures; he is ready to pay them off regally in exchange for their financial and political support in getting elected. Lawmakers have tried to block this, and for once have done the right thing. Few can doubt that if Berezovsky's Transworld Group gets its hand on the plant that turns bauxite into aluminum, it will not end up sucked just as dry as the Volgograd carmaker.

There is a great deal of talk in Ukraine about integration, whether it should integrate with Europe, Russia, or God knows who. I would argue that the regular Berezovsky-Kuchma trysts point to the fact that on the level of the shadow economy and its sibling, shadow politics, Ukraine has already become deeply integrated into the CIS theater of operations. Take the energy market, directly and officially controlled by the National Security and Defense Council which basically hands out licenses to make money. The oil and gas come from Russia, and it has for this reason long been apparent that the Ukrainian energy Mafia, which includes the core of the country's political elite, simply could not exist without close relations with the Russian structures that supply the crude. The Berezovsky affair illustrates to what extent the current regime in this country is willing to kowtow to Russian oligarchs. De jure, Ukraine remains independent, but the question still arises of just how independent it is de facto.