Says US Institute of National Strategic Studies

The long-awaited visit to Ukraine by a delegation of the US Institute of National Strategic Studies took place in the wake of the May 23 session of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council which set the country’s course toward joining the NATO-based security system. This theme naturally dominated the meetings of the Institute’s Director Stephen Flanagan and Senior Expert Eugene Rumer with Ukrainian government officers and experts with the Foreign and Defense Ministries. Naturally, during a round table meeting with Ukrainian journalists and public activists, they also wanted to know how the public reacted to the move. Apparently, the United States wants to see how serious Ukraine’s intentions are. So far, the idea has not encountered any negative reaction, which is very important, considering the US leading role in NATO. It is also clear that NATO member states need time to make a political decision: time to see what NATO could give Ukraine and what Ukraine could give NATO. Not in theory, as before, but in real practice. As Stephen Flanagan explained, Ukraine is important both as a military potential and geographically. The NSDC decision was characterized as “a very important landmark.” The guests noted that Ukraine “has made many steps in the right direction,” which could be viewed as encouragement. The US experts warned, however, against adopting unrealistic programs or schedules. They confirmed indirectly that world developments after September 11 changed the whole understanding of international security. Thus, Ukraine has a chance – “security is no longer a regional matter, it must be put on a global basis.” It was noted that “Ukraine does not see itself outside the Euro-Atlantic community.”

Much was said about general but definitely impressive things. The demands to construct civil society, to carry out political, social, economic, and military reforms are becoming acute. Obviously, with the approaching NATO summit in Prague, these issues will be accentuated, and they will dominate all talks about Ukraine’s possible steps toward European integration. “The key is in Ukraine’s hands,” Eugene Rumer said at the round table. According to him, the alliance was, is, and will be open to Ukraine, but Ukraine must first undergo changes in order to find its place in the European community, to realize that it must share common values and interests. This is how Ukraine can become one of the strongholds of Euro-Atlantic security. It should not concentrate on deadlines, the US expert advises. Rather, it must concentrate on the content of relationships.

“NATO is not a fashion club,” Dr. Flanagan said. “Each of its members has to share common values and interests and protect one another, be it Ukraine or Bulgaria or any other country. A definitely positive point in this utterance is that Ukraine, should it “ripen” enough to apply for membership, will be regarded from the same standpoint as all the other applicants. What is emphasized is that a country willing to join NATO must make its own contribution to security, but “no one will demand from Ukraine a contribution as large as from its western allies.”

The actual attitude toward Ukraine will be clear in the next few months. Flanagan and Rumer were the first to promise that the current discussions, the course of preparations for the session of the Ukraine-NATO Commission in July in Kyiv and for the NATO summit in Prague would determine a mode of transition from distinctive partnership to intensified dialogue and further – to a plan of actions for NATO membership as well as ways to “step up the dialogue.”

So far, Ukraine is told that when the West studies the experience of accepting East European countries into NATO, it will have a better understanding of what changes should take place in the political, military, social, and economic branches and that Ukraine will surely make use of that experience, while NATO will have a better basis for deciding on involving Ukraine in its Membership Action Plan adopted at the 1999 summit.

It was stated, as before, that “there is no doubt that Ukraine has already contributed to Euro-Atlantic security by its peacekeeping activities and there is no doubt that in the near future Ukraine will continue to contribute to security.” It was also said that the United States is already studying possibilities for cooperation in space rocketry, missile defense and transport aircraft-building.

Hence, the USA has set conditions under which it will be interested in supporting Ukraine’s further rapprochement with NATO. If Ukraine complies with these conditions, the US envoy to NATO will most likely abstain from voting on accepting new members to the alliance (as has happened before and may happen in Prague). But it is the United States that will be a locomotive force of the process, because now its capacities in what concerns security mechanisms are head and shoulders above Western Europe’s. That is already the initial answer.