Belarus-Ukraine: Change of Accents?

Belarusian Premier Gennady Novitsky has paid two visits to this country since he was appointed six months ago (Kyiv was the first foreign capital he visited as premier). On March 12-13 Ukraine was visited by his Minister of Foreign Affairs Mikhail Khvostov. This frequency of visits allow us to suggest that Ukrainian-Belarusian relations are assuming new outlines and characteristics. The mutual lack of acceptance, which once sweep like a wave over any bids for Kyiv-Minsk cooperation, is gradually vanishing. The Ukrainian government seems to be less perturbed by Western statements that the Lukashenka regime is undemocratic and that Ukraine might be slipping to the Belarusian model of violating human rights and freedoms, while Belarus has in turn taken a more deferential attitude toward Ukraine’s proclaimed European foreign policy direction. Moreover, after winning last year’s presidential elections, Aliaksandr Lukashenka promised to take his country out of isolation. It is quite possible that he is also pinning certain hopes on Kyiv in this respect. Kyiv on its part has always opposed the isolation of Belarus.

Minsk has clearly, if so far insignificantly, changed some accents in its foreign policy. The Belarus government is still hailing its great expectations for the Union State of Russia and Belarus. Yet, looking at the improved relations between Moscow and the West, Minsk emphasizes the possibility of building relationships with both sides on a bilateral basis. Although Minsk still favors participation in the Collective Security Treaty, it still has not forgotten to sign the NATO cooperation program (not in the least perhaps owing to Moscow’s active cooperation with the North Atlantic alliance).

Both Kyiv and Minsk are calling today for increased trade between the two countries. Belarus and Ukraine say they intend to boost this to $1 billion in the current year. “We are concerned over our falling trade cooperation and want to rectify the situation,” Minister Khvostov told journalists, adding that this increase in trade “is the minimum goal we must set in our economic entities.” According to the State Statistics Committee, in 2001 Ukraine exported to and imported from Belarus an almost $250 million and $407 million in goods respectively. In other words, entrepreneurs in both countries will have to look for another $400 million in goods and services to trade. This in principle does not look fantastic, because in 1996 the two countries had trade worth $1.4 billion.

On the other hand, Ukraine has already filed antidumping suits over some Belarusian goods. Yet Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Anatoly Zlenko has also noted, “We see no alternative to relations with Belarus.”

However, both countries are still beset with the problem of debts, worth from $200 million to $100 million according to various estimates, that Ukrainian economic entities owe Belarus. The trouble is that a host of Ukrainian enterprises that once cooperated with their Belarusian counterparts no longer exist. Clearly, Minsk tries to refer all debts to the Ukrainian state. Rejecting this approach, Kyiv is trying to solve the problem according to the Russian scenario, i.e., by recognizing the debt as collective, not public. In response to Ukrainian intransigence, Minsk is trying to exert pressure on Ukraine by refusing to ratify the state border treaty. Ambassador of Belarus to Ukraine Valentin Velichko told The Day, incidentally, that Belarusian and Ukrainian leader s had agreed “the problem of debts is to be solved simultaneously with ratification of the treaty” (the ambassador in fact admitted that Minsk linked the two issues).

The election campaign in Ukraine and the arrival of a Belarusian minister is pure coincidence. This follows from Mr. Khvostov’s statements, with one of his arguments being that the visit had long been planned. On the other hand, Ukrainian Communist leader Petro Symonenko was recently received by the Belarusian president, which triggered quite a negative reaction in Kyiv. Still earlier, on the eve of the Belarusian presidential elections, Mr. Symonenko visited Belarus to support the batska (father, as Lukashenka is referred to — Ed.). Incidentally, Belarusian law bans this kind of promoting election candidates.