FOREIGN POLITICAL BALANCE A LA UKRAINE

Perhaps I will not exaggerate if I say that politicians’ statements about Ukraine being “doomed” to serve as a buffer between the West and the East, and that its policy must be balanced accordingly, have been run into the ground. In our inimitable Ukrainian way this balance has basically looked like waffling in all directions to no purpose for the state.

On the eve of the next CIS summit the Ukrainian establishment has given up its spiel about Ukraine not being a CIS member, rather one of its founders (although last year the subject was broached rather often). Another waffle? Some analysts believe that another Ukrainian-Russian “thaw” is underway, though the much-advertised Kuchma-Yeltsin accords have not yielded any noticeable fruit - and other analysts predict none to be forthcoming, because Russia can also count its pennies and will never give anything to “brother” Ukraine for free.

The Western perspective also gives little to be expected on. Suffice it to say that in order to reach some kind of understanding with the European Union, Ukraine had to resort to a round table involving the US, because until then Kyiv and Brussels could not come to terms.

Roman Shpek, Chairman of the Ukrainian National Agency for European Integration and Development, admitted recently that his and all the other structures concerned had actually ignored Ukraine’s major priority, integration into Europe, and that no one has been either blamed or punished.

Very likely the next CIS summit will hear more than one soliloquy about the need to set up an economic alliance without which no one will survive. Ukraine has lost everything it could in her trade relations with the former Soviet republics and has gained practically nothing in her contacts with the European Union. Here any reliable economic alliance seems unlikely because Russia is so firmly resolved to remain the “sole guiding force,” so much so that in a couple of years the very existence of the CIS will be highly questionable.

On the other hand, until normal foreign trade relations are established, along with normal legislation and a normal clear-cut foreign political course, Kyiv, contrary to its the calculations of its pundits, can hardly count on associate EU membership, just as EBRD will not be inclined to finance any large-scale Ukrainian projects. Time is being wasted not because of what some try to present as making the choice between East and West, but because too many politicians are just unable to understand current realities.

Of course, the best thing would be coming to terms with both Europe (without US intercession) and Moscow, the way it was done by Poland, Estonia, and Bulgaria.