On its way to Turkey, our T-84 first encounter political barriers

A traditional exhibition of arms and military equipment opened on September 28 in Turkey where Ukraine is also showing off the capabilities of its own military industrial complex. It is not for the first time that this country displays its flame-spewing wares at Idef, but this time the situation is special. Precisely now the main battle is beginning for a $4 billion contract for joint production of a thousand tanks for the Turkish army. Ukraine has been short- listed, as have four other contenders. What are Kyiv's prospects for victory?

The tank order is part of a $150 billion broad military modernization program Turkey hopes to implement in the next thirty years. Although Ankara has announced the tank short list, the Turkish military will not be able to make a final decision to identify the winner in the immediate future. The foreign press quotes the Turkish Defense Ministry as saying that the tender results will be decided only in 2001, and the production of machines will start in 2005 at the earliest.

Today, potential partners offer Turkey the joint production of the American Abrams, French LeClerc, German Leopard, Italian Airet, and the Ukrainian T-84 tanks. It is worth noting that the short list does not include Russia because of the inadequate engine power and non-NATO caliber of its tank gun. Not only Russia but also Great Britain is missing from the short list. This only confirms the idea that Ankara makes all its decisions in the military and technical area through the prism of the political preferences of its military and political leadership. Turkey is bent on minimizing the number of arms contracts with such European suppliers as Germany, Britain and Italy precisely for political reasons.

Italy's relations with Ankara worsened after the latter learned about the presence of a leader of Kurdish terrorists in Rome. And although Italian companies have formally been allowed to take part in the Turkish tenders, they have very iffy chances of getting the contract. The new government of Germany takes a dim view of the rearmament of Turkey and is contemplating measures to impose limitations on weapon sales to Ankara. Germany's Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer recently expressed unwillingness to supply Turkey with a thousand Leopard-2s manufactured by Krauss- Maffey. Ankara immediately replied that it did not plan to buy German tanks and had never submitted such a request. As to Britain, the Turkish military is dissatisfied with London's repeated violations of the earlier-signed agreements on the supply of various armaments. As a result, Britain is unofficially considered an unreliable supplier.

Unlike Russia, Ukraine is quite capable of meeting Ankara's technical demands concerning tanks. But here, too, as usual the final choice will depend not so much on the weapon's performances as on the political situation. Among Ukraine's minuses are active military and technical contacts with Greece, Turkey's long-time rival, to which Kyiv also wants to sell tanks. Verkhovna Rada's behavior also negatively impacted on the military contacts between Ukraine and Turkey. Ankara still remembers of our Parliament's desire to defend Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan. And, finally, Kyiv's inability to meet such a condition for joint production of tanks as additional investment in the economy of Turkey, which Ankara badly needs after the devastating earthquake.

The real life lineup of tank forces in this duel is now primarily in favor of Turkey's closest NATO allies, the US and France, although political winds have somewhat spoilt the spirit of relationship between Ankara and Paris. Franco-Turkish relations were rather cool for some time after the lower house of the French Parliament passed in May 1998 a legislative proposal which cited Turkish responsibility for the genocide of Armenians in 1915. Turkey even threatened France that it could discontinue all kinds of military contracts in the future if French Senate approves this bill unanimously adopted by the lower chamber. In the end everything turned out well, and military relations between Ankara and Paris remained normal. This was recently confirmed by a $450 million contract to supply French Aerospacial Erics antitank missiles to Turkey.

Thus, one can conclude that the US is today Ankara's most reliable Western ally. Despite occasional American hints that weapon supplies to Turkey may be linked to human rights issues, Washington has never banned any deliveries of basic weapons systems to Turkey. Nor does Washington have any friction with Ankara like Paris had. It is the US that has the greatest chances to win in the tank tender. Unless, of course, Washington suddenly decides that, instead of giving Ukraine IMF grants, it would be better to support Kyiv with a multi-billion-worth tank grant.