Adv entur es of the “Russian factor”
The 2006 elections may be the last ones in which the “Russian factor” will play an important role. This is the conclusion of experts at the Situation Modeling Agency (AMS) who analyzed the attitudes of top-ranking political parties to the “Russian question.” First, there will be a very long gap before the next election campaign in Ukraine. Second, Russia will have an election in 2008, and experts forecast that Ukraine and Russia will have radically changed their positions by that time: Ukraine will become Russia’s “big sister.” “Today, as in past years, Russia is trying to preserve the illusion of regional leadership. However, in the current situation this illusion is gradually shifting in favor of Ukraine: now we are going to try to persuade everyone that Ukraine has taken a leading position in the region, that it is Ukraine that is bringing democracy to the former Soviet states and is generally the flagship of all political processes in the regions,” says AMS deputy director Oleksiy Holubnytsky. In reality, however, a wayward Ukraine seems to be Russia’s main source of irritation today.
According to project manager Yaroslav Pavlovsky, “today the Russian factor carries some weight only in the eyes of Ukrainian politicians.” Proof of this is that no Ukrainian politician accused Russia of destructive actions during the gas crisis. Moreover, political scientists claim that “Russia itself has put its eggs in different baskets, taken a wait-and-see attitude, and is convinced that, irrespective of the results of the 2006 elections, it will be able to come to terms with any winner.”
In the experts’ view, none of the parties that stand a good chance of entering parliament is anti-Russian. At the same time, the Party of Regions, which traditionally exploits the Russian factor, does not envisage any pro-Russian steps in its election program except for recognizing Russian as a second official language. “Analyzing the Party of Regions’ slates, we came to the conclusion that this party is not very interested in the arrival of Russian capital to Ukraine,” Holubytsky noted.
The Socialist Party may be called a pro-Russian force because it cooperates with the odious Russian politician Dmitry Rogozin, leader of the Rodina Party. However, one can boldly predict that the socialists will hardly advertise their relations with this political force during the election campaign.
The communists can also be considered pro-Russian, but the communist era has come to an end in both Russia and Ukraine. Experts note that Our Ukraine has adopted a very vague stance on Russia. On the whole, the political forces that have rallied around Our Ukraine can hardly be called Russophile, since the Popular Movement of Ukraine (Rukh), the Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists, the Christian Democratic Union, and the Ukrainian Republican Party of Unity (Sobor) have always promoted a radical reduction in Russia’s influence on Ukraine.
Volodymyr Lytvyn’s bloc is traditionally considered pro-Russian because most of its members used to be staunch supporters of Leonid Kuchma. Experts claim that the main vested interests of this political force have obvious business interests in Russia. (For example, the big financial player, Ukrsybbank, cooperates rather closely with Russia’s Alpha Group.) It is true, though, that Lytvyn does not show any clear-cut orientation toward any of the Ukrainian foreign policy vectors.
Experts consider the BYuT a theoretically pro-Russian force. In other words, Yulia Tymoshenko simultaneously seeks to fill the “pro-Ukrainian” electoral niche and to signal Russia about “openness to cooperation.” This pleases the ears of Russian spin masters, who continue to play the Tymoshenko card as an alternative to Yushchenko. It has not been ruled out that the Kremlin may view Tymoshenko as a good partner, but there is no proof that the bloc itself wants this, the analysts say.
The director of the Situation Modeling Agency, Vitaliy Bala, also pointed out that Russian capital “is present at all elections” in Ukraine. This is particularly manifested by the presence of Russian business in Ukraine. The expert believes that until business is separated from government in Ukraine, Russian companies will be lobbying their interests and investing “in certain political projects” for this purpose.
