BANG GOES THE VARYAG AND SUPERPOWER

In December 1999, Macao will lose its Portuguese colonial status, becoming part of China, meaning that Ukraine, by irony of fate, is actually selling the giant warship to the Chinese. Now the Taiwanese, Philippine, Vietnamese, Malaysian, and Brunei, all claiming part of the Spratley Islands (in part, because China wants the rest of the territory abounding in oil fields), will toss and turn in their sleep, sweating through nightmares with the Varyag plying the South China Sea under Chinese colors, a powerful trump up Beijing's sleeve in its territorial claims on the islands.

The ship will be fear-inspiring even as a floating gambling house in this region, simply because by very remote chance she could be converted back to combat status. Ukrainian experts, however, are certain that this is purely hypothetical; such conversion would cost too much and present too many technical problems. It would also mean breaching the contract.

In saying goodbye to the Varyag, Ukraine is parting with two illusions. The first is that Russia could, if it would, throw more monkey wrenches in the Ukrainian works like they did by suddenly refusing to build the aircraft carrier, denying Ukraine another chance to earn a few million bucks and have a hundred or so additional jobs. Leonid Kuchma and Viktor Chernomyrdin agreed on completing the Varyag's construction in Mykolayiv five years ago. Moscow has since lost so much it cannot afford to maintain its own aircraft carriers, let alone spend anything on the Ukrainian project (two Russian carriers were sold to South Korea). The second illusion is that Kyiv still hoped to be the capital of a superpower. At one time Dmytro Pavlychko, the poet laureate of Ukraine's diplomatic corps, declared, also in Mykolayiv, that the Ukrainian Diaspora was prepared to pay to have the Varyag ready and see the Ukrainian national colors unfurl from its mast. That would be something to write home about. A genuine Ukrainian aircraft carrier posing for CNN cameras somewhere in the Adriatic Sea or Persian Gulf or just riding anchor on the Black Sea with its aircraft ready to hit any target anywhere in the Middle East, Caucasus, south of Russia, or Southeastern Europe. Ukraine could then rate superpower status, couldn't it? Of course, it would have to look for some super-interests. Bang goes the Ukrainian superpower. And good riddance to the bad Kremlin superiority complex which keeps Russia on the go against all odds. Why should Ukraine mourn the loss of its world's third strongest nuclear arsenal, most formidable long range bombers, and unfinished aircraft carriers? Why not sell what is left to China rather than Russia? Or at least scare Moscow with the possibility?