Beginning of Tectonic Movement
The creation of the Eurasian Economic Community, founded last week in Astana, was not and could be not a bomb that exploded at the least expected moment. Discussions over the creation of such an organization went on even before the formalization of the CIS, and never stopped. As a rule, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev voiced the idea.
The implementation of this idea only recorded the fact that an integrated Commonwealth of Independent States has never existed. It was only a sort of formalization of the reality based on the fact that Russia is the only state in the post-Soviet space which not only preserved its interests in the whole region but also has the means to protect them, and so far this does not contradict to the interests of other countries or their rulers. Russia has demonstrated that its foreign policy is really multi-vectored and quite strong enough in various directions. One might not agree that the new formation is subordinated exclusively to Russia’s interests — it is simply evidence that Russia has its interests and defends them the way it believes necessary — regardless of whether this is good or bad for others. It would be senseless to dispute this fact. Ukraine could aspire to become another regional center, but not from the standpoint of banal rivalry. Any such rivalry is doomed, because Ukraine, with its debts, virtually collapsed economy, and dependence on the Russian market, is not in any condition to compete for influence throughout this theater, nor will it need to do so in the future.
The actual end of the CIS, the situation in which the future destiny of the free trade agreements between its member states remains unclear — obviously the only thing most of them share — should compel them to clearly identify priorities and to accept that at some point their implementation will be painful for all.
In terms of the European integration policy declared by the Ukrainian leadership, integration into the Eurasian space under the current circumstances appears utterly impossible, but normal, quiet, mutually beneficial cooperation, clear arguments in its support, and gradually capturing markets are goals that do not appear unrealistic and quite probably would only contribute toward strengthening this country’s position. On the other hand, a strong position in the region and good-neighborly relations would in no way contradict the general policy. Up to now the Ukrainian policy in the domain of the former Soviet Union appeared neglected, and not only within the CIS, and the no necktie diplomacy of the presidents will sooner or later come to an end as in many post-Soviet states a new generation will soon come to real power, the generation which will not have a shared past and the sentiments associated with it. Obviously, on certain issues these people will be more pragmatic and tougher, especially those of them educated in the West. And perhaps it is they who will fix the landmarks of the region’s geopolitical situation in the near future.
To all appearances, the creation of the Eurasian commonwealth is just the beginning of major tectonic movements on the territory of what was once called the Soviet Union. Perhaps, GUUAM will be soon viewed in the same context, and certain other, purely regional, formations, based on normal practical interests with different principles and approaches, might emerge. For the world does not stand still. It is just good to be prepared for anything.
